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Newfoundland & Labrador Polling - February 19, 2015
February 19, 2015 - 4:53pm
NTV/MQO poll: Decided and leaning voters:
Liberal 60%
PC 28%
NDP 11%
Green 1%
Sample: 314, MOE +/-5.52 #nlpoli
So, a right-wing PC government will just be replaced by a right-wing Liberal government in Newfoundland. Great for the financial-industrial complex, pointless for everyone else.
Regarding the financal-industrial-big oil profits arrangement, of the four political entities it really doesn't matter who it winds up being in the end. I won't be there for the next campaign, but I would very much like to be on hand for the next election night. The liberals were always quite generous with the beer and grub. Nobody takes them any more seriously than they do the PCs of course, but if you act like you do, which can be easily accomplished by just standing there with your hands in your pockets while saying nothing, it typically promises to be a smashing night out, and for free.
Bit hard to describe any political party in Newfoundland and Labrador as "right-wing".
And there's also the fact that once Lorraine Michael's leadership troubles started, and the defections happened, etc. it basically became a race between the Liberals & PC's with the NDP likely out of the running this time around.
It may change down the road once the NDP selects its new leader and gets back in the game again, but for now it will be hard for the NDP to get out of 3rd place in Newfoundland.
I think we should just be glad that the Cons are so unpopular in the province right now, both provincially AND federally. Makes Harper's chances of picking up seats more difficult in 2015.
With these numbers the Liberals could sweep every seat Frank McKenna-style. I hope that's not the case.
The Liberals in this province are where they are more because of the failings of the PC's the past 2-3 years than anything else. If you ask me they win at least 30 of what will be 40 seats up for grabs in the next election.
Very very unlikley. There are still seats in the province that the Liberals have never won and the PC Party will have a lot of incumbents on the ballot. The NDP may be able to win some seats.
The current Federal projections for Newfoundland show the Liberals winning 6 out of 7 seats, with Jack Harris keeping St. John's East.
Abacus are releasing provincial numbers next week and CRA will report numbers soon.
I'd like to hear of one thing that is "right-wing" about the Newfoundland ND—, I mean, PC government. They have a bigger-spending, bigger-government record than just about any NDP provincial government I can think of.
Yes, the Abacus Poll came out tonight. Here it is:
March 3, 2015
Provincial and Federal Liberals have a big lead in Newfoundland and Labrador
According to a new Abacus Data random telephone survey of 653 eligible voters in Newfoundland and Labrador conducted from February 17 to 25, 2015, the NL Liberals continue to hold a large lead over the PC Party.
The Liberals lead the Tories by 25-points with support for the Liberals at 57% among committed voters compared with 32% for the Tories and 9% for the NDP. Liberal support is up 9-points since August, while the PC support is down 2, and NDP support is down 5.
More concerning for the PC Party is the finding that fewer eligible voters would even consider voting PC. Four in ten eligible voters said they would consider voting PC while 48% said they would not consider voting PC. That is an eleven point decrease from August 2014.. This compared with 65% of eligible voters who said they would consider voting Liberal.
http://abacusdata.ca/provincial-and-federal-liberals-have-a-big-lead-in-...
More detailed charts here:
Liberal = 57% (+9)
PC = 32% (-2)
NDP = 9% (-5)
http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Abacus-Newfoundland-and-...
Tories can't win back disenchanted voters, poll suggests
Abacus Data poll finds that even PC supporters predict a Liberal will win
Mar 03, 2015
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/tories-can-t-win-bac...
This is the pong part to the game of ping-pong.
CRA had these numbers today for Newfoundland and Labrador:
Liberal: 56
PC: 31
NDP: 13
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/cra-poll-liberals-re...
So why is the NDP doing so poorly there? From the little I know about the area it should be prime NDP territory.
So what's up?
I often hear from the people I talk to that 'they're all the effing same.' No one I know in NL bothers to vote anymore. I suspect the polling numbers are comprised of the voting remnants that may be found among the population, most of whom vote traditionally.
There are a lot of reasons why the NDP has historically been weak in NL. The party enjoyed a brief upsurge in popularity after the 2011 provincial election but this thread: NL NDP leader facing revolt tells the story fairly well about what has happened recently. I'd suggest you review and come back if you have any further questions.
The NDP's having a leadership convention here this weekend. Former head of the fisheries union here in NL, Earle Mccurdy, is the favourite to win. The NDP down here have pockets of support but for some reason they can't break through.
Corporate Research Associates poll: Support grows for NL NDP
So, NDP still a long way off, but their support is growing.
Big surge for the NDP. It'll be interesting to see if their organization can take advantage of it.
http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2015-06-08/article-4174495/NDP%E2%...
McCurdy just announced he's running in St. John's West, the NDP nearly won the seat in 2011. The district is now held by cabinet minister Dan Crummell and Siobhan Coady had been the Liberal candidate for the district prior to the boundary changes.
Lorraine Michael will run in the district of St. John's East-Quidi Vidi. Looks like George Murphy will go for the nomination in Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville if he runs.
I think Michael would have won Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville but she'll have a real battle on her hands in St. John's East-Quidi Vidi. I'm also not so sure how George Murphy will do running in Virigina Waters-Pleaseantville. That district is probably his best opportunity to win re-election.
Wayne Bennett is looking to get the NDP nod to run as a candidate for St. Georges-Grand Lake. He was dumped from the PC party last year for anti-Muslim remarks.
NDP MHA George Murphy has anounced he will not seek re-election after one term.
Heard George Murphy on the radio earlier doing an interview and when asked about Earle McCurdy he didn't say anything overly great about him. I never thought much about it but a local reporter just tweeted that Murphy hasn't decided if he'll campaign with Lorraine Michael and the NDP in the upcoming election. The district that Micahel is running in was mostly made up of Murphy's current St. John's East district. From what he has said in interviews it sounds like Michael decided to run there without really consulting him on her decision, in his radio interview he commented on how he could have challenged her for the nomination.
So it sounds as though there might be some issues going on there. When the caucus revolt happened in 2013 Murphy mentioned that he hadn't decided if he'd run again and I've heard a number people say since that time they didn't think he'd run again. While he said he's not running for family reasons it seems as though some internal politics may have been the deciding factor for him. Murphy was a former Liberal who left the party about 5 years ago to join the NDP. Members of all politicial parties seem to really like Murphy but I don't think he's really cut out for the rough and tumble game of politics. And while Murphy definitely championed the policies of the NDP I always got the sense that he wasn't an ovely ideological or partisan guy.
Lorraine Michael's admission that she did not consult George Murphy about running in the seat that is mostly made up of his current seat says a lot about the continuing fractious internal workings of the NDP in the province.
It has been suggested that the NDP’s new part-time Leader Earle McCurdy was not consulted either and instead learned of Michael's intentions through the media.
Michael's poisonous “me-first” style continues to undermine their chances of growth. This especially sends a warning to any potential candidates thinking about running for the NDP in the upcoming election.
Lorraine Michael's admission that she did not consult George Murphy about running in the seat that is mostly made up of his current seat says a lot about the continuing fractious internal workings of the NDP in the province.
It has been suggested that the NDP’s new part-time Leader Earle McCurdy was not consulted either and instead learned of Michael's intentions through the media.
Michael's poisonous “me-first” style continues to undermine their chances of growth. This especially sends a warning to any potential candidates thinking about running for the NDP in the upcoming election.
Some people have brought up that when the House of Assembly closed Tuesday and Lorraine Michael had an opporunity to address the legislature she made no mention of George Murphy, despite him having given his farwell adress just moments before. Liberal leader Dwight Ball acknowledged that some members would not be returning but only Paul Davis singled out Murphy and thanked him for his contribution.
After Murphy's decision to stand behind Michael following the caucus revolt her moves with regard to seat selection and not thanking Murphy seem interesting. However, she does seem to be known for putting herself first and getting a bit spitey with people.