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Conservatives admit they are losing in Edmonton-Strathcona
April 14, 2011 - 4:05pm
Ryan Hastman is shouldering the hopes of the federal Conservative Party, which desperately wants to take back Edmonton-Strathcona, the only one of 28 Alberta ridings they don’t hold. But to do so, he’ll have to knock off New Democrat Linda Duncan.
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“We're giving it our best. But to be honest, we're losing. I need help,” he wrote in the e-mail, first obtained by the Edmonton Journal, adding later: “This is going to be a tough race. Honestly if tomorrow was election day, we'd probably lose. The NDP are well organized, motivated and have a huge team. I see their campaign in action every day.”
Well it would certainly be nice to see Harper lose more seats in his own 'heartland' - imagine how furious he would be! But it might be tough to take away any of the other Con seats in Alberta at this point in time.
She's starting to run away with it I think...Linda is getting away with a few things that will boost her. Probably should take Edm-Strath off the list of ridings to watch, it's approaching NDP safe seat status now.
Edm-Strathcona includes the university and all the students living on campass. Students at the UofA trend very strongly towards the NDP...if they vote in the riding they are from (often rurals) then the NDP vote is kinda thrown away in a Conservative stronghold. They live on campass for more than 6 months, so it's completely valid for these students to vote like in EDM Strathcona. I saw on another forum she has a 'Vote Mobile' helping these campass stranded voters get to polling stations. Linda's volunteers outnumber their conservative counterparts somewhere in the range of 5:2....there is no need for "Liberals for Linda" as most liberals in '08 that voted for Linda are now just plain ol' NDP voters in '11 (I beleive under Iggy, we'll see a further collapse of what's left of a western liberal vote...which would be great for the NDP and possibly greens here). And yes, it is spilling over into other ridings.
An urban calgary seat going NDP is a potential if we ever get engaged here.
Now if we only could win in PEI...
I'm extremely skeptical. Maybe there is an anti-incumbent trend against Harper but my observation has been that whenever the Tories campaign in Alberta (and they almost never do...the lazy bums), they win. So anything short of 100% effort for the NDP is extremely dangerous.
I agree - take nothing for granted in Strathcona - but if the NDP does well in Edmonton, then Edmonton East will be the second shoe to drop!
Agreed and if that happens you can pretty much count the NDP second in Edmonton Centre (which is a non-Tory leaning riding).
An increase in the Liberal vote could help the NDP if it comes from the Conservatives...in the last federal election most of the Liberal vote in the West collapsed and went Tory. Not really sure if it's on the radar though.
The problem for the NDP in Edmonton-Strathcona (and also, Saskatoon-Rosetown) is that they can't really depend on much more of a Liberal vote drop as it must be close to the floor.
That appeal for help may have been a ploy - never, never underestimate the Cons capacity for lying and deceit.
In BC hinterlands the collapse of the Liberal vote in 2008 definitely hurt the NDP.
But I wouldnt assume that the same goes for urban Alberta. Not to mention that counter-intuitivley, a collapse in the Liberal vote huting does not necessarily mean that an increase in the next election will help the NDP in 2 way races with the Cons. There are just too many variables in the dynamic.
I'd be willing to hazard an expectation that in Vancouver Island North, a recovery of the Liberal vote- especially with Iggy as the flag bearer- is pretty likely to pull some votes from the Cons. But wouldnt want to bet on that for urban Alberta.
Well certainly a collapse of the Liberal vote helped Linda Duncan prevail. But for Edmonton East to go NDP, a Liberal vote increase would probably help.
Their campaiging is whipping their voter base into a frenzy and garentee them showing up at the polls, while otherwise promoting apathy so nobody else shows up. Works well....but they struggle campaigning outside of that
And duh on the 'less than 100%' comment...I am meaning that there are enough (almost to the point of too many) currently giving their 100% to make this a NDP safe seat.
Gyor - Calgary center and calgary north. thread in the prarie forum goes further in on it. We're pretty heavily concentrated, just very apathetic. Last election, we did somewhat rally around the green candidate in city center though
Lord palmerston:
Give a drive around the riding and do some sign counting...they are in deep trouble on this one.
Kens:
I know Calgary better so it might not be true in edmonton...but for the most case ndp/green/liberal (any opposition) tends to share a similiar vote segment. It's a little more apparent when you look at the provincial numbers where we collect to Alberta Liberal but quickly divide to green/NDP in federal elections.
We're probably a bit of an exception (alberta I mean)...Liberal works as a curse word here and it's really only in narrow pockets that the liberals see much for support.
Edmonton used to be called "Redmonton" because it voted Liberal whereas the rest of the province voted Conservative. In Edmonton, I would say that with the exception of parts of Edmonton East and Edmonton Strathcona that always go NDP provincially, the city is more "Liberal" politically. The difference between the Liberal and NDP voters, however, is that the NDP voters tend to be more committed to the NDP than the Liberal voters to the Liberals. So if the NDP can persist a few elections to come in 2nd place, the ABC vote can be made to coalesce around the NDP.
With a few historical exceptions, I do not believe there is much of a Tory to NDP swing. It is mostly a motivation and organisation of the ABC vote.
ETA: As Searosia mentioned, Calgary has its ABC leanings too. Calgary often elects Liberal mayors. Edmonton has elected NDP mayors (and Liberals).
Actually Edmonton had the nickname "Redmonton" before the Libs even had official party status. As Official Opposition from 1982-1993, the NDP made great gains in Edmonton. In 1986, 12/16 Edmonton MLA's were NDs. Only 6 MLAs outside Edmonton WEREN'T Tories. That was what earned Edmonton the moniker. My mom wore it as a badge of pride working at ND provincial office through the late 80s-early 90s when I grew up.
When Edmonton mayor Laurence Decore became Liberal leader, he succeeded in revitalizing his party fortunes to a disappointing (for them) 8 seats in 1989 and then in 1993 they successfully played the strategic voting BS and the NDs were annihilated. The moniker persisted after the torch was passed.
Back in those days prov ND colour was magenta (ya...I know). The "Red" referred to politics, not party colours.
The facts show that the liberal voters who switched went in about a two to one ratio to the Cons. That was true in Van Isle North (one of the largest rural ridings in the country) and inner city Burnaby. In Van Isle North the Reform party ate the NDP vote among forest and mill workers in the '90's. Those voters were looking for real change and they never envisioned Duffy at the trough as the result of voting for John Duncan. I think there are still votes that the NDP can take back from the Conservatives.
I also think that local candiates often make the difference between winning or losing not national trends or campaigns.
Hastman's plea is just a ploy to look lik ethe underdog and gain momentum, this isn't something Duncan should take heart from.
Looking at the metrics, I'd have to say that Calgary West, with the U of C there, would be the NDP's best hope. Even with a klutz of a backbencher, too. But given the titanic lead here, today's students will be bouncing grandkids on their knee before the NDP becomes a real contender in Cowtown. Getting a rebate is going to be hard enough as it is. But never say never …
Absolutely, the political naivete is incredible. Harper must have gone to bed laughing every nite so far during the campaign.
Except that even by Calgary standards, the NDP showing's been abysmal there.
I'd rather look to the open seat of Calgary North Centre, where John Chan did well over the past few elections and reached 2nd in both 2006 and 2008...
Just look at the results in Edmonton-Strathcona the last few elections. BC voting patterns are irrelevant. The Liberal vote in E-S dropped for three elections straight while the NDP vote went up and the Conservative vote remained more or less constant.
Actually, it is the complete opposite. A 'tough close race' doesn't rally the troops; if anything, that language is defeatist in its vague attempt to save face. You'd only use it when you know it's beyond you. As always with political communication, think of hockey, second intermission, and what you'd rather use to get your guys fired-up and through the next period - being the underdog, always always helps.
"We're losing" is a battle-cry. Particularly in the context of Alberta where every single other seat is a forgone conclusion. Just think of the narrative if Hastman wins. It all fits together perfectly. The responses here are exactly what he wants.
The Conservatives are extremely controlled with their messaging, their communications, etc. Everything they release is calculated and vetted and approved. This was not a leak, this is not an accident and this was calculated and planned.
If anything, this type of thing indicates that they're a heck of a lot closer to winning Edm-Strath than they wish to admit to the public.
You only want people to think you're losing when you're really not.
Do not ever, ever trust the Harper Cons.
That is why generalizations from one region to another in this election are not really applicable. So for instance in Burnaby Douglas last time the Liberals collapsed and came in third. However the Liberals the two elections before that were the NDP's competition. The relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates is very, very important to voters no matter how many pollsters push and pull.
We could easily wake up to a new Liberal MP in Burnaby Douglas if the voters who switched last time go back to the Liberals and some of Leung's ethnocentric vote is syphoned off to Low. Stewart has already lost key campaign members who couldn't work with him because they thought he was an arrogant control freak. His campaign can only hope he doesn't sound as condescending on the doorstep as he does in the privacy of his headquarters. But it will be a good test since he firmly believes that Bill Siksay got elected on Jack's coattails last time and is running a very Jack focused strategy. Never been tried in this riding so it should be interesting to see how many voters were Svend and BIll voters and how many the last few elections were voting for Jack.
There has been some talk about university ridings above but the election timing is such that they are rendered mostly irrelevant and likely not voting. Universities are in the midst of exams and most will be done and gone somewhere fort the summer by the time the election is called. Most would be able to vote in the advanced polls but that will take a sophisticated vote early campaign that convinces the students they have a stronger voice if they vote as a block not as scatterlings of Alberta.
That is why events such as the Vote Mobs at some eastern campuses and the Vote Mobile in Edmonton-Strathcona were organized. The idea is to motivate students to vote in general but also to vote by special ballot before they go to their home ridings. In many cases an NDP vote will count more in the mostly urban ridings that have college campuses than in the suburban or rural ridings that many students come from.
Although they may not percieve it this way, most students are actually "more resident" in their campus ridings that they are in their so called "home" ridings, as they spend more than half the year there. and after graduation are likely to more to yet another riding. An obstacle to students voting is that they are either not registered or are registered in the riding of their parents, in which case they need to reregister in the campus riding. By bussing students too the electoral office registration and voting by spacial ballot can all be done in one trip befer students return to thier original ridings.
Here is the Globe's "Riding to Watch" profile of Edmonton-Strathcona published yesterday.