Direct and immediate impact on Canada of Trump bullying
In the international forum you have lots of discussions about the bullying of Mexico.
We see speculation that the US might target Canada with policies really meant to punish Mexico but so far there are no details. However, there is no discussion, so far, on the direct impacts of US efforts to bully Mexico and their companies who are trading legally with it.
Trump has served notice to the auto companies that if they move a US plant to Mexico they can face a 30% tariff even though he has to tear up NAFTA to do it. Clearly they would be reluctant to go to Mexico at the cost of US jobs. Canadian jobs? Different story.
US companies say they are reviewing their plans in this light. They may already have plans for Mexico. So what is the solution for the big three? Answer: Close the Canadian plant -- that won't hurt US jobs, and it still moves a plant to Mexico.
There does not need to be any direct bullying of Canada. There does not need to be any direct action. Just significant threats to US companies that they cannot locate a US plant to Mexico without paying a price.
So the story:
GM axing 625 jobs at Ontario plant, shifting some production to Mexico
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-unifor-ingersoll-1.3955128
The government of Canada has its collective head somewhere where there is no light shining.
"We remain optimistic about the strength and future of Canada's automotive industry," Bains said.
The CBC sees the connection:
"The move comes against the backdrop of a new administration in the U.S. that has threatened to tear up NAFTA and slap a punitive tariff on companies that make cars outside the U.S. in places like Mexico, which makes about two million cars a year bound for the U.S. market."
Canada has to stop with the Liberal "sunny ways" fantasies and contemplate what happens to our workers and industries in a post NAFTA / FTA context. Canada is getting the closures that US companies are now too afraid to do at home.
If the government was thinking we were not on the front lines of this trade war, they need to get some new advisors now. We are on the front line and we are already getting hurt. Right now as US companies consider their options a couple things are happening:
1) the opportunities in Mexico are getting better as some realize moving there is a no-go. Mexico has to sweeten the deals. Mexican currency is going down. Their workers will accept even less.
2) US companies with Canadian operations understand that they can screw Canada in order to take advantage of whatever desperation Mexico has while still avoiding the tirade of the tyrant.
The Canadian government source speaking to the media last week said our friendship with Mexico is secondary to our interest. The person was hoping Canada was not in as much trouble. We are. Understand this dynamic and you understand that either Mexico and Canada fight the US together or Canada has to take the same positions against Mexico and the US as the US is taking against Mexico. Or we just watch our industry go.
This dynamic is not something that might happen. This is already happening. US companies have been given an incentive to punish Canada to please the Mad King.
The trade war has started while the Liberals are not understanding that this is not a cold war but a hot one.
NAFTA Renegotiations Cannot Be Another Backroom Deal
https://secure.canadians.org/ea-action/action?ea.client.id=1899&ea.campa...
"Canada's trade relationship with the United States has never been more uncertain. There cannot be closed door negotiations that put the interests of corporations ahead of the interests of people and the environment..."
Oh yeah...?
If nothing else, Trudeau gets to play the "Last Liberal Standing" card on the global stage.
US refugee ban: Canada's Justin Trudeau takes a stand
In a series of tweets, Mr Trudeau underscored his government's commitment to bringing in "those fleeing persecution, terror & war". Within hours, Mr Trudeau's tweets had been shared more than 150,000 times.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38786656
An excellent BATNA
The point I was trying to make is that there does not need to be anything formal targeting Canada for this country to be severely affected. In fact Canada may well have to take the next formal action without the US doing anything at all other than continue to bully Mexico and threaten to punish companies who locate there.
All this is happenign and we are already paying a price. No further action is required for Canada to lose serious numbers of jobs due to Trump's pronouncements.
And, Canada will ahve to engage in a trade war if this happens without the US taking any more action.
Canada would have to respond to its companies and those selling here in the same way as what Trump has done.
Well Canada would have to increase numbers -- talk from the prince of talk won't be enough.
http://ccrweb.ca/en/2017-immigration-levels-comments
"The CCR is deeply disappointed at the low level (7,500) for Government-Assisted Refugees (GARs). The 2017 level is below the annual average of GAR arrivals of 7,600 from 2000 to 2015. It is particularly distressing that Canada would not increase its commitment at a time when the global need for resettlement places for refugees is greater than ever (UNHCR projects needs for 1,190,000 refugees to be resettled in 2017)."
Important to remember the difference between what a Liberal says and what a Liberal does.