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Two In 10 NDP Voters Would Defect To Kevin O'Leary Led Conservative Party
January 26, 2017 - 3:36pm
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From Ipsos Reid
Here are the polling results among decided voters who were presented with the three hypotheticals:
In the hypotheticals with Bernier or Leitch as leader, the results suggested the Conservatives wouldn’t fare much better than at present. Current voter preference (if there was an election tomorrow) shows 41 per cent favour the Liberals, 30 per cent favour the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the NDP, according to Ipsos.
In the above scenarios, O’Leary’s popularity appeared to come at the expense of the NDP among the decided voters polled.
Though the vast majority of decided voters indicated they’d vote their party regardless of who’s leading the Conservatives, more than two in 10 NDP voters appeared ready to jump ship to the Conservatives if O’Leary was leader.
“We’ve seen this trend elsewhere. The idea that it’s exclusively people from the right that are attracted to the populist message is incorrect,” Bricker said, pointing to former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, the successful Brexit referendum in the U.K. and America’s election of President Donald Trump as examples.
“People on the left who are tired of the status quo are listening, too.”
Full article at link
http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservati...
After the NDP spending a couple of elections focused on getting the center and center right vote it's not surprising that some of its support would go to him.
Where is the left wing populism? Surely we can better than 25 cents off your banking transactions. Do we have Sanders like candidate with compassion, intergity, and acts sounds like they mean when they talk about populist issues. My green membership runs out in may and I want to buy back into the NDP so I can support someone that believes in left wing populism.
O'Leary is to the right of Atilla the Hun. I can't see why anyone who identifies themselves as progressive would support that shithead. I also believe that his pathetic non-existant command of French will be a big handicap.
As for a left wing populist Canadian Bernie Sanders,I can't think of one.
Remember,Trudeau was elected because of his left leaning populism which shows Canadians have an appetite for progressive change.
O'Leary is going to have a hard time with his Trumpist message.
The press will tear Mr. Boston to shreds
Any kind of left-wing populist would be torn to shreds by NDP insiders who can't keep their mouths shut.
How does that even make sense?
So... the NDP moves to the right. The general consensus seems to be that this was driven top-down, and that NDP members and supporters didn't want this.
So now it's just natural that some of them are prepared to move EVEN FURTHER to the right? Have they been conditioned to want this? Or what's the theory here?
How did an unpopular move make an even more drastic move popular? Why aren't 2 in ten NDP supporters planning to give their support to someone more LEFT than the current NDP??
I'm sorry. If you have a problem with this thread, please tag this to the admins with your complaint. I'm sure if they feel the same way you do, they will delete this thread with cause.
And if anyone feels this thread is inappropriate, just don't participate and let the thread die a natural death if the admins won't delete it.
Again my apologizes.
This poll actually has federal NDP support higher than we have seen in a very long time. Being in the 17% to 21% range sure beats the 12-13% we had seen last year...and this is despite not having a leader and not even having a leadership contest underway yet. I'll take it.
Where does the "two-in-ten" come from if NDP support is 19% on the generic how would you vote questions but 17% when you introduce O'Leary's name? That is more like 1-10 - though clearly well within the margin of error.
Of course that poll takjen at face value also indicates that if Leitch or Bernier were leader - the Tories would be a in struggle with the NDP to see who would be official opposition! Maybe the Tories shore up more of their own base with O'Leary because he is not French and he is not a woman!
Any polls that ask "how would you vote if so-and-so was leader of party x?" always have to be taken with a boulder of salt. Its totally hypothetical to say the least.
We all have to remind ourselves that most voters are very very low information and probably the only thing they know about O'Leary is that he is famous.
Its a nice theory except that Kevin O'Leary may be a loit of things but "populist" isn't one of them. He is pro-immigration, refuses to vilify Muslims, is very liberal on social issues, thinks Canadians troops should only work as peacekeepers and his economic policy is basically just cut taxes on the rich and businesses and he comes across as a sort of Thurston Howell III stuffy billionaire. In what way is that remotely "populist"?
The poll is a bad joke all in all but if any people who said they supported the NDP in the past and would support Kevin this time would have to come from the group of right leaning voters who came to the party because they wanted balanced budgets and they hate Liberals.
And the "not married to Bill Clinton" thing.
So have you tagged this thread to the moderators for deletion. Or would you like me to do it?
So you don't think they are both misogynist pigs. Bill claims he only got a blowjob in the Oval office from a young woman but he didn't grap her pussy. Yeah thats way fucking better for women. You do know that because of the power of his Office Clinton was in a position that he abused and because of that power imbalance it would be considered rape in many jurisdictions.
http://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/cj-jp/victims-victimes/def.html
Sorry but what a crock of shit that conclusion is.
It assumes the net movement is the only movement. Anyone who is at all competent when it comes to reading polls knows how absolutely stupid this is.
So let's look at this explanation entirely possible from these numbers -- and a lot more likely:
Lib 41 + 2 GR and BQ to stop O'Leary + 2 NDP top stop O'Leary - 7 to O'Leary = 38
CPC 30 plus the above 7 from the LPC = 37
NDP 19-2 to LPC =17
Other parties 10%-2=8
The writer of the conclusion that this means direct NDP to Liberal migration should not be working in this business.
You have to watch not only for crappy methodology but also compeltely incompetent analysis. Any person who knows anythign about polls knows there is movement in all directions as well as margin of error.
Clearly it makes sense some NDP and GR would move to Liberals to stop an idiot like O'Leary. That there is a net loss as more LPC move to CPC does not mean there was not a gain to the LPC from the other parties in the context of their greater loss to the CPC.
This was Ipsos. Question is did the idiot who came up with this conclusion work for Ipsos or the media?
So you don't think Hillary's campaign suffered from Bill's sexual assault history and her berating other women who dared to confront him?
I certainly think it was a factor.
But why would NDP and Green voters move to the Liberals to stop O'Leary but apparently would NOT move to the Liberals to stop Kellie Leitch who by any objective standard is wayyy more scary and distasteful? With Leitch as CPC leader NDP support rises to 21% - just 5 points behind the CPC at 26%
I say bring on Letch. She's a complete idiot. The election would become a race between the Liberals and NDP.
It may be a matter of image.
O'Leary is perceived as "Canada's Trump" and that makes him more scary to some people.
They may not be as aware of Leitch.
Thank you MegB for the clarification. Hopefully this puts to rest any qualms Misfit has about posting threads about polls.
lolol your poll was already debunked above....lololol
It is not my poll, I was just sharing what Ipsos released yesterday.