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A whole new game: the NPD (Quebec NDP) and its new MPs
April 20, 2011 - 11:48pm
Opening post.
The NDP takes the lead in Quebec.
With such a big Liberal swing to the NDP, the NDP sweeps English Montreal as well as a lot more, getting as many as 35 seats:
Outremont
Westmount--Ville-Marie
Gatineau
Hull--Aylmer
Lac-Saint-Louis
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville
Jeanne-Le Ber
LaSalle--Émard
Pierrefonds--Dollard
Bourassa
Laval--Les Îles
Mount Royal
Papineau?
Brossard--La Prairie
Ahuntsic
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher
Alfred-Pellan
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert
Pontiac
Laval
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant
Drummond
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Shefford?
Brome--Missisquoi?
Compton--Stanstead?
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia?
Louis-Hébert?
Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine?
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles?
Beauport--Limoilou?
Those last eight look unlikely. But instead we could very easily add:
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie
Hochelaga
Vaudreuil-Soulanges
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Verchères--Les Patriotes
Laurentides--Labelle
Chambly--Borduas
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel
Any comment?
I think it is easier to guess which seats the NDP wouldn't win as opposed to the ones it would win with the current CROP poll numbers in Québec. PR is still needed.
So who are those candidates?
Westmount--Ville-Marie: Joanne Corbeil
Gatineau: Françoise Boivin
Hull--Aylmer: Nycole Turmel
Lac-Saint-Louis: Alain Ackad
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine: Isabelle Morin
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel: Roberta Peressini
Saint-Laurent--Cartierville: Maria Florez
Jeanne-Le Ber: Tyrone Benskin
LaSalle--Émard: Hélène LeBlanc
Pierrefonds--Dollard: Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe
Bourassa: Julie Demers
Laval--Les Îles: François Pilon
Mount Royal: Jeff Itcush
Papineau? Marcos Tejada
Brossard--La Prairie: Hoang Mai (one of our stars)
Ahuntsic: Chantal Reeves
Longueuil--Pierre-Boucher: Pierre Nantel (this was a nomination worth fighting for almost a year ago, when he defeated another star Djaouida Sellah who then ran in Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert)
Alfred-Pellan: Rosane Doré Lefebvre
Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert: Djaouida Sellah (A doctor from Algeria, president of the Association of Quebec Doctors Graduated outside Canada and the U.S.; and also co-president of the Quebec NDP Women's Committee)
Pontiac: Mathieu Ravignat
Laval: Jose Nunez-Melo
Châteauguay--Saint-Constant: Sylvain Chicoine
Drummond: François Choquette
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin: Alain Giguère
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie: Alexandre Boulerice (one of our stars)
Hochelaga: Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet
Vaudreuil-Soulanges? Jamie Nicholls
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles? Laurin Liu (Vice-President of Internet Communications, Young New Democrats of Quebec)
Verchères--Les Patriotes? Sana Hassainia
Laurentides--Labelle: Marc-André Morin
Chambly--Borduas? Matthew Dubé
Argenteuil--Papineau--Mirabel? Mylène Freeman
Anyone who recalls some of the accidental NDP MLAs in 1990 in Ontario will shiver ever so slightly. But many of them are going to have a remarkable impact.
Based on democraticspace.com, electionprediction.org, projetdemocratie.com, the candidate effect in the riding and sometimes, regional polls, here is a list of the ridings the NDP can potentially win in Quebec:
SURE NPD WIN
1. Outremont
2. Gatineau
MOST LIKELY WILL BE NDP
3. Hull-Aylmer
4. Jeanne-Le-Ber
POTENTIAL NPD WIN
5. Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou (local poll indicated strong NDP votes, he was 3rd though but the poll might have underestimated the First nations/Cri votes
6. Westmount-Ville-Marie
7. Alfred-Pellan
8. Brossard
9. Notre-Dame-de-Grace
10. Ahuntsic
11. Drummond
12. St-Lambert
13. Laval
14. Lasalle-Emard
15. Beauport-Limoilou
16. Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles
17. Repentigny
AND IF THE WAVE IS AS BIG AS THOSE POLLS SAY (THESE ONES WOULD CAUSE A SURPRISE)
18. Compton-Stanstead
19. Shefford
20. Marc-Aurele Fortin
21. Jonquiere-Alma (local star candidate, but he has to beat an JP Blackburn...)
21. Chambly-Borduas
22. Portneuf (3 candidates race...)
23. Longueuil
24. Chateauguay-St-Constant
25. Abitibi-Baie-James
26. Quebec
27. St-Hyacinthe
28. Pontiac (the NDP is strong in the Gatineau region, although, I would be surprised if they could beat LCannon)
29. Rosemont (really strong NDP candidate competing against a really really strong BQ incumbent)
30. Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
31. Louis-Hebert
32. St-Bruno
33. Vercheres
34. Pierrefonds-Dollard
35. Laval-les-Iles
36. La-Pointe-de-L'Ile
37. Lac-St-Louis
38. Riviere-des-Milles-Iles
39. Brome-Missisquoi
As for the rest, at this stage with the polls that high, everything could happen for the NDP in Quebec ;)
Got a call tonite from a friend in Mount Royal who said she was voting NPD.
Thanks for sharing. It's nice to look at other people NDP list of potential winning ridings. Our lists are kinda similar. Althought, there are some ridings you have on yours that I would be really surprised if the NDP wins them. Like I said, everything is possible at this point, but a few of this list are really unlikely. ;)
We'll have to wait and see if the CROP and Ekos regionals are mirrored by the other pollsters -- the current polling avg for 9 QC polls ending Apr 15-20 (incl CROP and Ekos) are as follows:
BQ 32.5
NDP 24.4
LIB 20.4
CON 18.6
GRN 3.3
At these numbers, the NDP still only wins 2 seats (Outremont, Gatineau). But there are 9 ridings where the NDP are b/w 5-10 points behind:
Abitibi--Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Alfred-Pellan
Beauport--Limoilou
Brome--Missisquoi
Brossard-La Prairie
Laval
Louis-Hébert
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier
Westmount--Ville Marie
And 5 ridings are within 5 points:
Drummond
Hull--Aylmer
Jeanne--Le Ber
Pontiac
Saint-Lambert
Hi Greg, I was reading the description of your model on your website and I wasn't quite clear how you weight everything on it you say:
Fair enough, it seemed to be accurate for the 2008 federal election. But it didn't seem very accurate in some of the more volatile elections like Quebec 2007.
Have you done anything along the lines of what Nate Silver in the US tries to do in regards to do to predict election results. In particular steps 3 through 6. Granted, some of the differences with the US are obvious, but seeing as there isn't a whole lot of information on your website about methodology I'm not entirely clear on how you'd come up with your numbers as your description is less than informative (i.e. polling counts for X %, historical trends count for Y %, on the ground reports count for Z %, incumbency/demographics count for R %, etc, etc). Basically, I'm curious as to how things are weighted and whether or not individual riding polls if they're available are added into your weighting formula (and if they are - will it matter if they were conducted on behalf of a campaign or not).
Whatever comes next, this is interesting.
It's a very interesting development to emerge in any election, let alone in what has been so far looking like a reprise of the last snoozefest.
Leave it to Quebec.
I don't disagree that this is fun, but even if those numbers hold vote spltis and regional trends would likely mean only a couple of extra seats, at best. So probably best to not get too excited. :)
Ridiculous. It's not May 2 so I know nothing is certain, but if these numbers hold - leading with 36% Quebec-wide and 40% in Montreal - then there will be revolutionary gains.
And it will be good if the phenom does not "save" Conservative seats from the Bloc by splitting the social-democratic elements.
Don't worry about this -- the effect on the national will be to give enough momentum to turn enough seats out of Quebe in compensation.
The thing is the election is still far enough away and the Cons mostly control the airwaves-- so much can change.
I hope people will get perspective and work becaue all the other parties will see this and get to work
So what appears to be driving these high numbers for the NPD in Quebec? Is jack simply considered superior to Iggy or is there more going on below the surface?
Okay, this is nuts.
I just averaged the CROP poll and the EKOS poll together. But EKOS has the Bloc dropping even lower than CROP does. So the outcome on the UBC Forecaster is NPD 44, Bloc 17, Conservative 8, Liberal 5 (including Coderre and Dion).
And that's failing to take account of local candidates in Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou (which it gives the Bloc by a 0.1% margin) and Jonquière--Alma (which it calls a safe Conservative seat).
On the other hand, considering the NPD's concentration in metropolitan Montreal, winning Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine and Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia might seem even less plausible than some of the other seats. Although then again, who knows what consensus might develop when the young folks come home from Montreal for the Easter weekend?
But look what this does to the House of Commons? The rump of the Bloc still likely holds the balance of power. With Duceppe losing his seat, they are led by Pierre Paquette from Joliette, their best seat is Montcalm next door, and they are lucky if they hold even one seat on the island of Montreal. (The Forecaster gives them a 2% margin over the NPD in La Pointe-de-l'Île, likely to evaporate given the concentration in Montreal.)
This reminds me of 1979. The Creditistes, shrunken to six rural seats and petrified of another election, supported Joe Clark. (Until, in a fit of confusion, they astonished everyone by letting his government fall, dooming him and them, and giving us all a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. But I digress.)
So the Bloc lets Harper stay in power, leaving the real victors, Layton and Ignatieff, to fume at them?
Forum Research has the BQ at 25, how does that change your projections Wilf? Sounds like the projection model is starting to fall apart.
NDP 34 BQ 25 Lib 18 CPC 16
I suspect that voting NDP in Quebec will have the consequence of taking away BQ votes, with the NDP not necessarilly getting more seats other than the three projected (Mulcair's seat, Gatineau, and Aylmer) while at the same time the BQ will lose some seats due to vote splitting, and allowing the Libs or Cons or both to take advantage. Not a great picture. Looks like I'll be campaigning against the NDP this time.
People need to not count chickens early-- those are some fragile eggs
Boom Boom how high does the NDP have to be to consider they are the better alternative to beat the Cons or Liberals?
I'd be careful about approaching Quebec strategically-- political earthquakes in Quebec is how change happens-- if you want o know for sure -- don't vote in an advance poll and wait and see how it is going but if those numbers hold the BQ could be the vote splitter not the NDP depending on where you are.
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So this projection gives the NPD some more accidental MPs:
Laurier--Sainte-Marie: Hélène Laverdière
Repentigny: Jean-François Larose
Saint-Lambert: Sadia Groguhé who looks like a star.
Terrebonne--Blainville? Charmaine Borg (McGilll student, Secretary of the Young New Democrats of Quebec)
Sherbrooke: Pierre-Luc Dusseault (a university student)
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot: Marie-Claude Morin (another university student)
Shefford: Réjean Genest
Honoré-Mercier: Paulina Ayala (a leader in the Chilean student movement and in citizens' rights organizations under the Pinochet dictatorship)
(More to come)
If you haven't heard EKOS Quebec numbers have changed from last night's poll:
NDP 31.4%
Bloc 27.2%
Con 18.4%
Lib 15.5%
Yowza. Yet another poll confirming abysmal Liberal numbers. If we take the lowest numbers for the non-NDP parties, it looks like the Libs have lost half their support, the BQ more than a third, and the Conservatives about a quarter.
I'm disappointed in Boom Boom, against all evidence he is sticking with the sinking BQ ship, when it is clear there is only one party with momentum in Quebec and this is the only party that can probably displace the Conservatives because both compete for the same federalist votes. If on election day, the CPC elects MPs with the NDP in close second, my disappointment will turn to outrage.
OK, here's what's puzzling me. The differences between the province wide polls & the local riding polls, especially ones done at the exact same time. For example, CROP puts out a poll showing the Liberals at 11%, 12% behind the Conservatives. A week later they do a poll in Lac-St-Louis showing the Liberals with a 20% lead on the Cons & a 34% lead on the NDP. Then their latest poll has the Liberals at 13% & the Election Forecaster spits out an NDP win for Lac-St-Louis (45.4%>25.5%). Then there's CROP's Quebec City polls which were conducted the SAME WEEK as last night's poll (UBC forecaster results based on the CROP poll in brackets)
Beauport-Limolou Con 35 (28.4) BQ 32 (26.5) NDP 20 (34.1) Lib 11 (7.9)
Louis-Hebert BQ 37 (29.4) Con 28 (21.7) Lib 17 (13.9) NDP 14 (33.9)
Portneuf Ind 37 (32.2) BQ 32 (26.1) NDP 17 (26.9) Lib 9 (9.0)
And here's Leger's riding polls, also done at the same time
Abitibi Baie James BQ 30 (32.3) Con 24 (23.4) NDP 22 (31.9) Lib 20 (10.9)
Abitibi Temiscamingue BQ 45 (38.9) NDP 21 (32.9) Lib 16 (11.4) Con 15 (14.6)
Not to mention Leger's provincial poll of over 1000, conducted April 15-17 (CROP was done April 13-20)
BQ 34% (31% CROP), NDP 24% (36%), Lib 20% (13%) Con 20% (17%)
2 polls by Quebec's top 2 pollsters done the same week.
Now continued from here.