babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Can the NDP's Noah Richler knock off Liberal Carolyn Bennett in Toronto-St. Paul?
July 9, 2015 - 7:35pm
===
What will it take for Noah Richler to BEAT Carolyn Bennett in Toronto-St. Pauls?
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/08/noah-richler-to-run-for-nd...
Maybe.
This is an Ontario poll, but nevertheless there is always some spillover effect.
NDP - 35%
PCs - 32%
Libs - 26%
NDP maintains lead in Ontario
Strong NDP minority government if vote held today
If these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the NDP would capture a minority of 45, 9 fewer than required for a majority, while the PCs would take 35 seats and the Liberals 27.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/310/strong-ndp-minority-government-seen/
Two words...!
'Lotsa luck!'
Had he chosen to run in a riding with a better prospects (Humber River-Black Creek?) I'd say he might have a chance. Or if Bennett had decided to retire, then maybe the odds wouild be better.
But defeating the Liberals in that riding....a tough nut to crack, that's for sure.
In an open-seat situation with the Grits on the fade, not necessarily. Remember that everything W of Bathurst might as well be a northward extension of Trinity-Spadina or an eastward extension of Davenport (and is held municipally by Joe Mihevc)--it's only the overall riding configuration that's bumped up the Liberal "winnability" advantage hereabouts...
The demographics of the riding are more similar to Toronto's suburbs than downtown. And then not even close to the diverse sururban GTA communities like Brampton or Scarborough.
This one is going to take at least one or two more election cycles to even consider NDP.
I don't know where your "Toronto's suburbs" conclusion is coming from; if I were to pinpoint a demographic problem here, it's it being too terminally *midtown*, rather than suburban--solid John Tory landslide country (and solid Doug Ford third place country), IOW. Yes, even Chow did better than Ford here.
Besides, as I indicated, west of Bathurst is *absolutely* symbiotic with the inherent "old Toronto NDPism" of Dav and T-S (how is Wychwood Barns "suburban"?), or else is of a piece with Scarberian "diversity"--if those parts were carved away into more NDP-friendly ridings, they'd go with their flow, not bring the flow down a la Rosedale. And conversely, the *real* black hole for the NDP here--Forest Hill and environs--is itself no more "suburban" than Rosedale. While the eastern Eglinton/Davisville zone may be argued as no more "suburban" than the western part of Parkdale-High Park--though the overall riding mix means that it'd take a "Catherine Fife K-W" dynamic rather than "Peggy Nash P-HP" dynamic to win'em over here.
That is, I don't disagree on the several-election-cycles point (and the fact that the ONDP only got 10% here last year is explained by their running basically a paper candidate). But "suburbanism" has little or nothing to do with it--or if it does, you might as well deem Rosedale a "Toronto suburb", too (which, roots-of-suburbia historically speaking, actually *isn't* too far off the mark)
Here, Westmount and Ville Mont-Royal (Town of Mount Royal) are still actually suburbs, or rather, enclaves. Outremont was too until the mergers (it disn't vote to demerge). Westmount is completely surrounded by Montreal.
Probably a Nick Clegg 2015 type-meltdown. St. Paul's is about as safe as any riding can be for the Liberals at this point.
However, I can see Richler cracking 30% and second place.
Yeah, the area centered around Yonge and St. Clair is probably the Toronto equivalent of Westmount - Rosedale, Summerhill and the like.
But would he be up for a secnd attempt?
With Liberal support still dropping and the prospect of another term in opposition, I could see Bennett saying 'Thanks, but I'm outta here!' after the election, and resign by Christmas.
A by-election could be the way to 'crack the nut', much like Brian Masse broke the 39-year streak that Herb Gray had in Windsor with his by-election win in 2002.
Perhaps. If it were a straight NDP-Conservative race, St. Paul's would go NDP before it would go Conservative.
One sign of this: David Miller beat John Tory by a wide margin in St. Paul's in the 2003 mayoral election.
another sign: I grew up there, ha
the hell of it is, I cannot rememebr it being called St Pauls; I thought the word Eglinton was in there somewhere, but then much of the time I lived north of Eglinton, then home of Mitchell Sharp, Mr Liberal, and that riding had a different name ... will check;
the answer:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eglinton_%28electoral_district%29
Except that up to that time, notwithstanding the Audrey/Alexa doldrums, the NDP already had a nominal-second-place history in Windsor West--whereas in St Pauls, it's been a historical third-place pattern. And a *really* distant third place back before the PCs imploded...
Interview with Noah Richler in the Jewish Forward:
http://forward.com/opinion/312050/can-mordecai-richlers-son-noah-shake-u...
St. Paul's NDP Twitter Account just tweeted
30% of past Liberal voters would vote NDP - enough for an NDP victory in #torontostpauls #cdnpoli