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16 Saskatchewan Constituencies to Watch in 2016 Election

jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

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jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

According to the article, there are 16 constituencies bearing close watching: Cumberland, Kindersley, Moose Jaw North, Moose Jaw Wakamow, Prince Albert Carlton, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park, Regina Lakeview, Regina Rosemont, Regina University, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon University, and the Battlefords. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/constituencies-watch-saskatch...


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

10 candidates to watch in Saskatchewan's election

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/candidates-to-watch-saskatche...


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

Live results for the Saskatchewan election will be available at the site below.

 

http://thestarphoenix.com/news/politics/live-results-saskatchewan-electi...

 

 


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

A description of each Saskatchewan riding and its candidates can be found at 

 

 

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/2564575/saskatchewan-election-2016-the-ridings/

 

 

 


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.


The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

I agree. By offering no major new differences from Wall's agenda, Broten will leave the electoral picture either much the same as before the election or worse. 

 

Quote:

The Saskatchewan provincial election campaign ends just as it began, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall enjoying a commanding lead in the polls.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker, including all polls published to Saturday, gives the Saskatchewan Party the support of 59.9 per cent of voters, with the New Democrats trailing at 30.7 per cent. The Liberals and Greens are projected to have 4.3 per cent support each. ...

That is only marginally different from where the numbers stood when the legislature was dissolved on March 8. At the time, the Poll Tracker pegged the Saskatchewan Party to be ahead with 53.5 to 34.5 per cent support.

(The Poll Tracker will be updated with any new polls published on Sunday. Check here for the latest updates.)

Instead of tightening up, as campaigns often do as election day approaches, the margin between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP has increased, from about 19 points to just over 29. That is not the kind of trend line that should give the New Democrats hope for a reversal of fortunes on Monday. ...

In even the worst case scenario for Brad Wall, then, his party is still projected to land well over the minimum threshold of 31 seats required to form a majority government.

That leaves three to 22 seats for the New Democrats, running the gamut from a significant improvement over 2011's results to the worst result in the party's history.

The most likely estimates, however, see the Saskatchewan Party capturing 46 to 52 seats, with the New Democrats taking between nine and 15. That means the parties appear to be on track for the status quo.

And that has been the story of this campaign from start to finish. The shifts that have been recorded in public opinion were marginal. In fact, the current polling averages differ little from the polls that have been published over the last four years: the Saskatchewan Party has averaged 58 per cent in surveys conducted between the 2011 vote and the start of this campaign, with the NDP averaging 30 per cent. ...

But the race has gotten tighter in Regina. The polls suggest that the Saskatchewan Party is sitting on about 49 per cent of the vote in Regina, with the New Democrats at 42 per cent. That represents a drop of seven points for the Saskatchewan Party and a gain of one point for the NDP.

That opens up a number of constituencies to the New Democrats, if their vote totals match the polls — seats like Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park, and Regina Walsh Acres.

A handful of NDP gains in the provincial capital, however, won't put much of a dent in the Saskatchewan Party's towering lead elsewhere in the province. Local issues in the smaller cities of Moose Jaw and Prince Albert could see some seats flip, and higher profile candidates elsewhere in Regina and Saskatoon could have an impact as well, to the benefit or detriment of both parties.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/grenier-saskatchewan-polls-1....

 

 


swallow
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Joined: May 16 2002

I like that the NDP's choice for 5 to watch are mostly named Nicole. 

Broten will probably gain 3 or 4 seats and keep his job as a result. 


quizzical
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Joined: Dec 8 2011

i looked over some of the ridings. 3 new ones.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

If the SNDP ends up losing even more seats, won't that basically be the end of the road for them?  Would it ever be possible for the SNDP to win another election if they end up with fewer seats than they have now?

Hard to see how Broten could make a case for ever getting another kick at the can even if he takes them up to twelve seats.


Misfit
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Joined: Jun 27 2014
The NDP is not going to win the election this time around. However this will not be the end for the NDP in Saskatchewan. They have a very deep history and a great future.

Timebandit
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Joined: Sep 25 2001
Given the implosion of the party last time around, reducing the SP's massive majority is the only realistic goal for the NDP. They have some good people running, hope they gain some seats.

Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009
Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

The question that Broten didn't think to try and answer is what he was trying to accomplish this election. Normally, parties want to win, but even under the best circumstances that just was not in the cards for the NDP this time around. So they needed to come up with something else. Did they want to send Brad Wall a message? Hold him accountable? Stand up to him? Present a vision for a green economy? Argue for preventative health services second to none in the country? A vision for arts and culture? Reconciliation with First Nations? If the election is a foregone conclusion, it really is hard to motivate people to care, and so Broten needed a compelling reason to give the voters as to why else to care. He didn't, and I'm willing to bet that voter turn-out isn't going to be particularly high this time around.


Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009

That's an excellent sumarry, A24.

It's something that all political parties, at both the federal & provincial level, should keep in mind.

The Federal Liberals forgot about it for a decade, and the Federal NDP forgot about it last year.

You need to give the voters a reason to vote for you and a compelling narrative and story to motivate them with.


Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009
NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

It's over.

SP already leading 20 seats to 5 seats with 60% of the vote going to SP

SP now leading 35 seats to 10 seats

Libs & Grns battling it out for last place


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Cam Broten is currently trailing by 200 votes in his own constituency with just over 40% of polls in. 


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Broten is still down by 134 votes with 10 polls left. 


Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009

SASKATOON WESTVIEW

55 of 62 polls

Cam Broten is now trailing by only 82 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/saskatchewan/dashboard/


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006

Debater wrote:

SASKATOON WESTVIEW

55 of 62 polls

Cam Broten is now trailing by only 82 votes.

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/saskatchewan/dashboard/

Down by 29; 58 of 62 polls


Timebandit
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Joined: Sep 25 2001
Close race in Regina Pasqua, with Heather McIntyre (NDP) ahead by 23 votes. (Following that race because I've known Heather since elementary school and she's good people)

robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001
Even assuming Broten pulls out a victory in his riding in the end, is there any way he can stay on as leader after this debacle?

jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

With all polls reporting, Broten has lost by 123 votes (3,329 to 3,206), so I expect that there will be a new leader. 

The Saskatchewan Party is elected in 48 and leading in 3, while the NDP is elected in 10 - a net gain of only one, despite the addition of 3 new ridings.

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/2615932/saskatchewan-election-results-2016-a-l...


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

double post


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

So, gender balance:
Danielle Chartier
Cathy Sproule
Carla Beck (new)
Nicole Rancourt (new)
Nicole Sarauer (new)
Trent Wotherspoon
Buckley Belanger
David Forbes
Warren McCall 
Doyle Vermette 


Misfit
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Joined: Jun 27 2014
And Canada lost to team USA in women's hockey in overtime.

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

This certainly isn't going to help out Broten's provincial counterparts one province east. The one upshot I can see is that these results give credence to the argument that change is necessary federally.


Hunky_Monkey
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Joined: Jun 11 2004

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.


The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!  


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.


The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!

Actually, just under half of the voting public in Saskatchewan couldn't be bothered to care. There's a certain segment of the population that benefits from Wall's policies, everyone else has essentially given up on the political process because it has failed them.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

The latest poll puts the Saskatories 31 points ahead.  This election will end Cam Broten's tenure as SNDP leader, but may not leave enough of a party behind for anyone to even bother seeking the SNDP leadership again.


The question remains...why did the establishment of the SNDP work so hard to put this guy in the leadership at all? 

It's a tragedy, and an avoidable tragedy.

Ryan Meili or anyone else would clearly have done much, much better.

Ah, yes... they weren't left enough so voters flocked to Brad Wall.  Gotcha!  

Anyone else the NDP could have chosen as leader would have inspired greater turnout.  Any increase in turnout will help the most progressive party in the race.

Cam Broten was the most right-wing leader the SNDP could ever have chosen.  He ran on the most right-wing program the SNDP could possibly have chosen.  There are no issues at all on which the SNDP could move any further right from where it is now and still be distinguishable from the Saskatories.

It's not as though they'd have done better by supporting furthern weakening unions, bashing "welfare mothers" or treating FN's as a "special interest group" that needs to be put in its place.  Or by promising to out-cut Brad Wall.


So no, you have nothing to be smug about here.  Nothing that happened tonight validates your "lefties are losers" attitude.


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