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Manitoba Polls
November 6, 2012 - 1:27pm
An October poll by Probe research of 1,000 Manitobans shows Premier Sellinger to be by far the most popular party leader with 50% approval while Brian Pallister and Jon Gerrard are at 33% approval. The NDP also leads in voting support with 45%, while the Cons have 38% and the Libs have 11%. The NDP dominates Winnipeg with 52% support while the Cons get only 32% in the city and the Libs trail with 11%. Outside of Winnipeg the Cons lead 46% to 35% over the NDP while Libs receive 10% support there.
(http://probe-research.com/documents/121025%20WFP%20Press%20release.pdf)
It is a long way from an election and polls can change rapidly, but this kind of support would lead to very large majority in MPs elected because of the many seats in Winnipeg.
Good news for the provincial party, but I'm afraid provincial voting intentions do not tend to translate federally. There are many people who vote NDP provincially who vote Liberal and even Conservative federally. Last year, the Tories cleaned up in the federal election in May, but then the provincial NDP increased its seat count in October. In both cases, the collapse of the Liberal vote was a major contributing factor.
Kind of, but not really...in the Federal case, it was the failure of the Liberal vote to completely collapse in the city of Winnipeg that cost us seats. In the last Provincial election, the Liberal vote was 7 per cent, and the NDP vote was 46% (down from 48% in 2007). In the Federal election, the NDP vote in Manitoba was 26%, while the Liberal vote was 17%.
So while part of the problem in the Federal case was that the Liberals bled votes to the Tories, another part of the problem was that not enough Liberal votes bled to us. Another part of the problem was that, in the absence of a credible NDP campaign in many ridings (e.g. Wpg-South, Wpg-South Centre, St-B), provincial NDP voters chose the Tories over their main opponent who was a Liberal.
Notwithstanding that the dynamic of NDP-Conservative swing voters (of whom there are a great many throughout Western Canada) puts to lie all of the stupid arguments in favour of "electoral cooperation," I believe the results offer two lessons:
1) If the NDP does not show it wants to win in Manitoba, people will vote Conservative by default. The Liberals are not a credible choice to most Manitobans and if the NDP does not step up, the Tories will continue winning. The NDP must run strong, well-funded and credible campaigns in all 8 Winnipeg seats next election.
2) In Manitoba, the NDP cannot suffer the Liberal Party to exist. In Federal elections, the Liberal vote will bleed Tory very easily; whatever Liberal vote remains will come straight off our tallies. Increased Liberal presence and visibility in the City as a whole costs us seats even where the Liberals are not even a factor (e.g. Elmwood-Transcona). In the next election, we must ensure that every ounce of Liberal effort is expended in trying to defend Winnipeg-North, and keep them isolated there. We must ensure that we are visible and on the ground in every other riding in the City and that they are invisible. A strong presence elsewhere in the City will help to carry Winnipeg-North.
Any thoughts if an NDP M.L.A. might be convinced to run federally in Winnipeg North, like Judy W.-L. in 1997 (after trying first in 1993)?
Rebecca Blaikie would be a better fit in Elmwood-Trancona in winning the riding back (I.M.H.O.) given the Blaikie family history there.
Agree wholeheartedly...Rebecca should run in E-T - she'd be a shoo-in. Quite frankly, I worry that Wpg-North might, ironically, be one of the more difficult seats for us to win. Since St-B and and Wpg-South Centre both now have Tory incumbents, however, I think they might be ripe for the picking with the right candidates. I can even think of one particular candidate who might be able to take out Fletcher in Charleswood-St James-Assiniboia.
To win back Wpg-North will be more difficult. That anti-Choice Liberal Kevin Lamoureux may be super-creepy, but he is a very effective and popular local representative with a lot of personal cachet, especially in the Filipino community. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if the one candidate to wrest that seat back might not be Judy herself.
I'd have to disagree about Rebecca Blaikie. I respect her a great deal, but she would be criticised for riding her father's coat tails. I think it would be good to look for a fresh face who's prepared to work hard to represent the community. Remember that demographics in Winnipeg are changing, so the candidates should reflect that.
I think the party needs to start looking at possibly recruiting candidates for the NDP nominations in some Manitoba ridings from the Filipino community. "Since 2010, the Philippines has been the country sending the most immigrants to Canada. There are more than 436,000 people of Philippine origin in Canada. Tagalog, the Philippine dialect, has become Canada's fastest growing immigrant language."
(http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Harper+praise+anti+corruption+drive+Phi...)
This is especially relevant in Manitoba as many Filipinos have immigated there because of its immigration policies. Manitoba's Filipino population is growing rapidly (60,000 mostly in Winnipeg with 7,000 to 8,000 arriving each year - http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/ourcityourworld/philippines/fil...). Harper and his chief immigrant recruiter, Kenny, are no doubt not unaware of this and its part of Harper's reason for visiting the Philippines. The Liberals have already had a Filipino MP - Rey Pagtakhan, from Manitoba.
And why shouldn't she ride her father's coattails? Seems to be working fine for that Trudeau twit. And since Rebecca is sharp and engaging in her own right (far more than her dad, IMHO), it should work out excellently.
I think its pretty lame to imply that Rebecca Blaikie would be "riding her father's coat tails" is she ran in E-T. Bill Blaikie retired before the 2008 federal election. We are now talking about a hypothetical run in 2015 - EIGHT years later and during that time Rebecca will have been President of the federal NDP for a number of years. She is clearly a force in her own right.
Let's wait and see what happens with redistribution before jumping to any conclusions. The proposed new map flips Wpg-North into an easy NDP win and amputates Lamoureux's strongest area....at the same time the Tories have apparently been trying to convince the commission to change Elmwood-Transcona and make it safer for them!
First of all, it's early going, so I wouldn't say that riding his father's coat tails has worked for Trudeau yet. As for Rebecca, we will have to see what she can accomplish on her own. Even so, as has been pointed out, demographics in Winnipeg are changing, with Tagalog being the most common mother tongue after English. We may be better to find more representative candidates who may not be well known, but who are prepared to work hard.
Also remember that as a politicians daughter, Rebecca experienced a degree of privilege and comfort greater than the average Canadian, and this raises a concern for me about the over-professionalizaiton of the NDP. What I mean by that is the NDP seems to be falling into the control of "professionals" whose personal experiences are so far removed from the working classes the NDP is supposed to represent.
Working class is as much about "culture" as it is about "income". One can grow up in a well resourced "working class" family because the union wage and benefits are extremely good. I think about Power Workers in Ontario, or auto workers in Ontario/Quebec. Some of these workers have made very good wages but bring up their offspring with keen sense of social and economic justice for all, and help them understand that their "privlege" comes with responsibilities and service to others.
I have great respect for our 3 MPs from the prairies and for Rebecca Blaikie. However, the visible face of the NDP on the prairies does not reflect the growing percentage of the population that comes from visible minorities, despite the lesson provided by Nenshi's victory in Calgary. As I said earlier, I think the party has to do a better job of recruiting candidates from visible minorities to run in ridings in Manitoba and the other prairie provinces in ridings where they have a decent chance of winning. In Manitoba, the Filipino community is growing rapidly and it gave Lamoureux a significant portion of its vote. On many issues, the NDP would seem to be an attractive choice for Filipinos. For example, "The federal government has resisted Manitoba's NDP government's requests to increase its annual quota of PNP applicants while also signalling Manitoba may have to share the total national quota with other provinces, such as Ontario." (http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/filipinos-transform-manitoba-1412...)
With Filipinos representing the largest immigrant group to Canada since 2010 and many of them settling in Manitoba, the NDP has an opportunity to increase its appeal by appealing more directly to this community.
I'll admit I haven't worked with her on anything, but I did go to an event where Rebecca Blaikie was one of the speakers. Quite frankly, I wasn't impressed with anything she said. Especially when she responded to one of my questions by saying that students in Manitoba shouldn't oppose tuition increases. And, to be honest, I haven't heard a lot of positive things about her.
I'll admit I haven't worked with her on anything, but I did go to an event where Rebecca Blaikie was one of the speakers. Quite frankly, I wasn't impressed with anything she said. Especially when she responded to one of my questions by saying that students in Manitoba shouldn't oppose tuition increases. And, to be honest, I haven't heard a lot of positive things about her.
I watched her in action during the last campaign as I worked in Winnipeg North. She is nice. She will be renomiated to contest Winnipeg North. That's how it is.
The final redistribution report is now out for Manitoba (and NS and NLas well)
My offhand impression is that it restores some of Lamereux's best polls which were removed in the initial report. Has anyone had a good enough look at the new map to elaborate further?
Well that is upsetting. Nope. I wonder if the elecotral commissin was "persuaded" to do that through a "citizen's" submission? Anone know?
In a Probe Research poll from November 30 to December 9, the Progressive Conservatives led the NDP by 43% to 39% while the Liberals were unchanged at 11%. Although support for the NDP has declined significantly during the last three months, most of this decline has occurred in rural Manitoba where they dropped from 35% to 23% and where the NDP holds only 11 of 26 seats. Conservative support in rural Manitoba has risen to 61% from 46%. However, in Winnipeg, the NDP still has a substantial lead over the Cons, 50% to 31%. The honeymoon period of the new PC leader, Brian Palliser, likely plays an important role in the increase in PC fortunes.
http://www.probe-research.com/121213%20Dec%202012%20Party%20Standings.pdf
According to 308.com, because of its strong support in Winnipeg and because most of the Conservative gain is in seats they already hold in rural Manitoba, the NDP would still win an election based on these results. However 308 is famous for having an incumbent bias in predicting ridings.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
In an Angus Reid poll of 7,091 voters on the popularity of premiers, Manitoba Premier Selinger ranked third with 38%, while Progressive Conservative leader Brian Pallister had 45% and Liberal leader Jon Gerrard had 31%.
Among NDP opposition leaders, Lorraine Michael came first at 61% ( Newfoundland), while BC's Dix tied for third place with Ontario's Andrea Horvath behind and Danielle Smith (Alberta -Wildrose) at 53%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48733/saskatchewans-wall-keeps-place-as-...
While Selinger is behind Palliser, Selinger remains within striking distance of him, even though his government is long in the tooth and suffering from the usual mid-term doldrums. Obviously, many of the NDP leaders across the country are doing well, including Michael, Dix and Horvath.
If these polls continue like this the MNDP might want to consider changing their leader before the next election or do they really want to lose?
It can be done - look at what the Australian Labour Party did today!
Probe Research
PCs - 46%
NDP - 28%
Tories take NDP support bases Winnipeg, women increasingly lean away from party of power
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/tories-take-ndp-support-ba...
This tactic worked to defeat Dix and the BC NDP, it might work for the Manitoba NDP. Its guaranteed to increase the disillusionment of the people in the political system and lead to low voter turnout. Our democracy works so well we should export it to other countries using what ever means necessary.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/tories-take-ndp-support-ba...
Playing musical chairs with party leaders is not the answer to every problem. The NDP has been in power in MB for 14 years now and they have collected baggage. Increasing the GST was never going to be a vote winner.
Selinger has never come under fire for any personal scandals and he did very well to win in 2011 coming right after Doer. and its not as if there's some Paul Martin-like "super star" waiting in the wings who would instantly do better (not that Paul Martin ever actually did do any better!).
If polls did continue like this...the MNDP would probably say - polls were even worse for Christy Clark in BC and yet she turned things around and won.
Also, this poll only has the PCs at 46% which is barely 2% above what they got in 2011. The NDP losses have gone to the minor parties such as the leaderless moribund Man Liberals at 17% and the leaderless broke and moribind Greens 11%...this reminds me a lot of how people in BC who were disgruntled with Christy Clark seemed to be flirting with going BC Conservative - but when push came to shove 90% of the people who were toying with the BC Cons came home to the Bc Liberals in the end. The same will likely happen in Manitoba...I predict that in 2015 the combined Liberal/Green/Other vote will drop from the current 28% to the usual 9-10%
No, Greg Sellinger did not win the election in Manitoba, the PCs lost on their own and handed it to him, an election the PCs should have won.
Not suggesting it is the case here but often the NDP set themselves up to lose by not moving quick enough. The right-wing does though because their priority is to win elections. The NDP often appears to be using 20th century techniques in their approach to elections. Just contrast the BC NDP and the BC Liberals in the recent BC election. Dix, as well as many others, should have announced his/their resignations the nite of the election. Now the BC NDP are going to have to go through another nonsensical fight to get a new leader, president, council, etc. whem their energies should be be focused on moderning. Have we not learned anything from the BC election?
They could try robo-likes and robo-retweets.
I think it's the other way around, as this was exactly how the NDP won the last election and that the BC Liberals could very well have copied it.
Good point. If Christy's people are ripping off the Manitoba NDP playbook then I guess in BC we would expect the Liberals to keep up the constant attacks highlighting the potential resurrection of a 1990's demon.
Sometimes parties move too quick. In retrospect, the biggest mistake the BC NDP made was in deposing carole james. if they had stuck with her - she almost certainly would have campaigned better than Dix and probably would have beaten Christy Clark.
I need to set the record straight about the Greens in Manitoba. The truth is, there is a Green movement riding across the world, where we've seen Green politicians break through in Britain, Australia, and BC both federally and provincially. The Greens in Manitoba are riding that momentum. In the last election, they ran the most ever candidates and received their highest ever vote share. Granted, it was still under 3%, but they beat the Liberals in many ridings, and I honestly think they would have beaten the Liberals province-wide had they run a full slate, and unlike the Liberal brand, the Green brand has the appeal of both the environment and the "pox-on-all-your-houses" mentality that the voters are feeling right now. And James Beddome has been the Green Party leader since 2008.
Besides, as we've seen with the Greens, the overall percentage doesn't matter. They've discovered that it's better to have a lower standing but run a half-slate in areas of support and hope for the best (which succeeded for Elizabeth May and Andrew Weaver) than to run a full slate and have a higher overall share of the vote without the concentration to win. Here in Manitoba, the Greens have, for 3 consecutive elections, shown a respectable 20-ish percent of the vote in the Winnipeg riding of Wolseley. Wolseley's currently held by a back-bench NDP MLA Robert Altemeyer. Should that seat ever become vacant, suddenly it's in play, and I wouldn't put it past the local Greens to employ the same scorched earth tactics that got them elected in other jurisdictions.
There is nothing whatsoever to suggest that and it is not productive to go there as well.
I completely agree.
Additionally, I think the latest poll is bad news for both of the major parties. Obviously, the NDP are sitting at a historic low. However, while the governing party has lost 18% points since the last election, the PCs have gained only 3. For me, that shows that voters are unsatisfied with the NDP, but not willing to trust the Conservatives. Its likely that these people may hold their noses and vote orange in 2015/2016, just as they did in 2011. Given how bad the MB NDP has bungled the PST hike, I'm suprised the PCs couldn't get more than a 3% boost.