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If the amount of road construction going on in Northern Ontario I saw when I was there last month is any indication, the Liberals think they can steal a great many seats from the NDP.
Why is the thought of a Patrick Brown majority something to be abhorred?
Not disagreeing, just curious.
Handing Brown a majority would have the same impact as giving a majority to Stephen Harper was in 2011. The fact that the NDP formed the official opposition did nothing to stop Harper from carrying out his agenda. If we formed the official opposition in a Brown majority the NDP would be just as powerless.
The only hope for the NDP is to hold the balance of power in a minority government (unless you think the NDP has a chance of forming a majority government, and there's not enough kool-aid on the shelves to make me believe that).
I'm not sure why we should "fear" a Patrick Brown government. Ther guy is just an opportunist who will say and do anything that is popular in the short term - how is that any different from a Liberal government?
It certainly would be novel and refreshing to have an election in Canada in which no candidate is such a scary monster that they need to be "stopped" at all costs. Particularly since those "all costs" = "don't vote for the progressive".
That said, I'm bracing myself for "you can't stop Kathleen Wynne by voting Horwath!!!"
That is not true. Because the NDP was in Opposition to Harper, they were able to land serious blows on his party, and that was a key factor in making people sick of him and wanting change. Unfortunately it was the Liberals who benefitted from that.
Experience in Manitoba shows that who is in Opposition matters. Gary Filmon, contrary to his reputation, was just as right-wing as Mike Harris, Ralph Klein, and Gordon Campbell, he was just more charming and likeable. He did a great deal of damage to this province, but because he was opposed by the NDP, not only did he eventually lose the election, but the NDP went on to reverse some of the damage he had done. Have Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne moved nearly as far to undo what Harris did there?
Besides, if Wynne gets her way, Hydro will be privatized, so what's left for the PCs to do?
I don't recall any 'serious blows' on Harper. Sure, they got their licks in, but in the end, they helped to elect the Liberals.
The point is, apart from the slim possibility of holding the balance of power, things are looking grim for the NDP in 2018. Hopefully, they'll put together an inspiring election platform and turn things around. As always, hope rings eternal in the NDP.
I see the latest provincial polling from 308.com shows the Tories at 41.8%, the Libs at 26.4%, and the NDP at 23.8%. I wonder if the growing divide between the so-Cons and the neo-Libs in Patrick Brown's Conservatives will be enough to prevent his winning a majority government. If so, the ONDP could end up holding the balance of power, a much more optimistic prospect from the way things looked in the fall.
The main complaint from Ontario Conservatives about Patrick Brown is that he is a weak waffler and equivicator. Social Conservatives and fiscal conservatives will definitely close ranks if they smell victory. With the Tories at over 40% and the Liberals and NDP at well under 30%, there is no chance of anything but a Tory majority government in Ontario. Were the Tories to dip under 40% somewhat, that would of course change.
Former federal finance minister loses Ontario PC nomination battle
Toronto lawyer Roman Baber beats Joe Oliver for chance to run in York Centre
https://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/15/former-federal-finance-minister-loses-on...
PCs Continue to Lead Strongly in Ontario
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2640/pcs-continue-to-lead-strongly-in...
wanting to vote against their own best interests again.......
Maybe, just maybe voters think the PCs policies are closest to their own and the PCs are listeing to them. Certainly the NDP are not, repeat not, listening to the voters. And that is how you lose, and keep losing, elections.
Maybe, just maybe, voters think the PCs policies are closest to what they want, and that the PCs are listening to them. Certainly the NDP are not, repeat not, listening to the voters. And that is how you lose, and keep losing, elections.
From my perception of events in Ontario, the main thing which is driving Ontario PC support is hatred of the Ontario Liberals. Voters see the Liberals as having been in for too long, and they want a change. The other thing which is driving voter fury at the Ontario Liberals is the price of Hydro, which has gone to the moon for many consumers.
Ontario has to cut off the sweetheart energy deals made to Ontario Liberal Party donors, so Hydro rates can return to something approaching normal.
With the NDP at about 24%, I could still see them in 2nd in a minority government, working with the Liberals on some issues, and the Conservatives on others (read road tolls, populist issues).
The South-West will be quite a battle between the PCs and the NDP. If the ONDP can take the Liberal vote, they will stay strong.
They also need to have Jagmeet Singh out in and around Peel region canvassing with candidates as almost a co-leader, to help win some of those ridings.
As election looms, how low can Kathleen Wynne go?
Electricity has become Ontario's political meme, drowning out any upbeat Liberal talking points.
A recent poll found Kathleen Wynne with a 13-per-cent approval rating — "the lowest value we have ever recorded for a sitting premier,"
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/01/14/as-election-looms-how...
The latest poll numbers (Feb.17) point to a massive Conservative majority (PC - 42.6%; Lib - 28.8%; NDP - 23.6%).
I know there's still just over a year to go, but at this juncture, does anyone have any thoughts on the kind of NDP campaign that will put the brakes on a Tory landslide, given the unpopularity of Kathleen Wynne?