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Nominated Candidates - Manitoba Provincial Election 2011
April 7, 2011 - 12:36pm
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OK, admittedly it's a bit early, but I've noticed that the opposition parties are starting to nominate candidates for next year's provincial election.
As I posted in another thread, the Liberals have nominated Roldan Sevillano Jr. as their candidate in the new Tyndall Park constituency, which overlaps the existing Inkster constituency (held by Liberal Kevin Lamoureux, who is departing to run federally for Judy WL's old seat) and the existing Wellington constituency (held by Culture Minister Flor Marcelino). Former PC MLA Marcel Laurendeau is vying to recapture his old St. Norbert seat, only this time under the Liberal banner.
The Tories have started nominating candidates as well. First out of the blocks in February was Kelly de Groot in Kirkfield Park. She lost in a close race to Grant Nordman (another Tory) in St. Charles in the 2006 municipal election. She ran against Jim Rondeau in Assiniboia in 2007 and finished a fairly distant second. She's already got her website up and has been doorknocking in the constituency. I expect she'll have a good shot at retaking this traditional Tory seat.
The Tories have also nominated Scott Gillingham in St. James, Karen Velthuys in St. Norbert, Martin Morantz in River Heights, Rochelle Squires in Riel, Judy Eastman in Southdale, Jeff Wharton in Gimli and John Zasitko in Interlake. Except for Velthuys, who is a school trustee in Pembina Trails, I've never heard of any of these folks before. Morantz looks decent on paper (and apparently there were over 500 people at the nomination meeting), while Squires and Eastman appear to have lots of backroom party experience and not much else.
PC incumbents Blain Pederson, Cliff Graydon, Ralph Eichler, Ron Schuler, Kelvin Goertzen, Heather Stefanson, Cliff Cullen, Myrna Driedger and Bonnie Mitchelson have been nominated in Midland, Emerson, Lakeside, St. Paul, Steinbach, Tuxedo, Spruce Woods, Charleswood and River East, respectively.
As for Team Orange, well there's nothing on the party website to indicate that nomination meetings have even taken place. It will be interesting to see where incumbents like Flor Marcelino, Diane McGifford, Kerri Irvin-Ross, Marilyn Brick and Ron Lemieux will run given that their constituencies are all being radically altered (or eliminated) by redistribution.
If anyone else has any news or nomination gossip, please share.
Here's hoping McGifford retires or gets shitcanned soon.
I agree.
Rick Borotsik is stepping down This opens up the seat. Given the recent election victory for Shari Decter-Hirst, the NDP should (but probably won't) invest some serious resources to try and win back this riding. Same in Portage, how David Farschou is not running again and the NDP has a good shot there, as its vote total has been on the upswing in past elections.
That surprises me about Borotsik. Many of them are fairly salivating, sure that they see victory next fall. Dyck is stepping down too.
Why, because Manitoba is still one of the least expensive provinces in which to get an education? Because MBA students, who actually support a tuition hike, saw the highest tuition increases?
Because she showed absolutely no leadership whatsoever on the post-secondary education file when she was overseeing it. Specfically, she failed to speak up when administration at the 3 universities was bashing the tuition freeze, and she was not able to crack down on them raising "ancilliary" fees to get around the freeze.
I heard that constituencies need to seek permission to have a nomination meeting from head office. Is this normal?
There probably has to be some co-ordination of nomination meetings so that things don't get confused (i.e. holding a nomination in Thompson and Virden the same evening and expecting Steve Ashton to be a guest speaker at both), but I haven't heard anything along that lines. What exactly did you hear?
Well, I've heard that any constituency that wants to have a nomination meeting needs to seek the permission of some "Election strategy committee" or something like that.
Usually there is a freeze on nominations until a certain time before the election
Usually it's the Provincial Council or some established process to get permission to proceed with a nominating convention. I aslo think that most sections now have a pre-clearance process for candidates (ie, criminal record check etc.).
I'd also add to that a google search in this day and age.
I'm not intimately familiar with the clearance checks, but I'm sure a straightforward google search or something like it would be part of it. There is also a questionnaire about the skeletons in your closets.
I see from the events calendar on the party website that the new Logan constituency will have its nomination meeting on Monday, January 10, 2011. Any word on who the candidates are? This is a new seat that essentially covers downtown and takes in chunks of the existing Fort Rouge, Minto, Wellington and Point Douglas seats. Will Flor Marcelino run here or in the new Tyndall Park seat? I guess we'll find out as of Monday.
Other upcoming nomination contests are in Spruce Woods (January 23) and Radisson (February 5).
It looks like Assiniboia, Selkirk, Rossmere, Fort Richmond, Minto, Kildonan, Gimli, Southdale and Riel have had their meetings already. I assume the incumbents got nominated in all but Fort Richmond, another new seat. Did Marilyn Brick decide to run here or opt to stay in the new, more Tory-friendly St. Norbert seat?
Kerri Irvin-Ross was nominated for that spot.
What do you think about the shifting of the ground in Brandon?
Irvin-Ross is running in Fort Richmond, eh? Would have thought Fort Garry-Riverview was a more natural fit, but then that would have meant Diane McGifford would be squeezed out. I'm sure the brass had a hand in co-ordinating this game of musical chairs to make sure everyone has a seat when the music stops. This smacks a bit of Becky Barrett moving over to Inkster in 1999 - a convenient way to avoid a nasty nomination fight and get a higher-profile candidate into a swing seat - but it also means that some 'past-their-best-before-date' MLAs like McGifford get a free ride in a safe seat.
A year ago I would have thought Brandon West was a real pickup opportunity (and even more so now with Borotsik's announcement), but having been back in Winnipeg over the holidays and talking about the current political state of affairs with family, old friends, former colleagues and fellow veterans of the 1990s political wars (from across the political spectrum, currently politically active and not), there seems to be a real anti-NDP sentiment out there among the general public and a lot of NDP supporters seem pretty convinced they are likely to lose in October. (Yeah, yeah, I said the same thing about Doer in 2006 but the zeitgeist of the place on this most recent visit suggested the NDP was on the outs with the public.) If that's the case, it will be a struggle to hold onto existing seats. On the other hand, Brandon did just elect an NDP mayor so who knows?
In any event, Brandon West will be by far the best chance for an NDP pickup this cycle (possibly the only one). I also fear for Drew Caldwell in Brandon East unless NDP numbers outside the Perimeter start improving fast. The Tories keep getting closer and closer with each election as the residual Len Evans coattails start to dissipate. You would know better than I, but I get the sense that Brandonites feel slighted by the lack of cabinet representation and that there is a perception that Caldwell has not been a particularly effective MLA. If the Tories get a good candidate in there (not a shnook like Waddell) Drew could be in the fight of his life.
You mean McGifford is staying?
shit.
It does seem to me that the ground is shifting in Brandon, as the election of Decter-Hirst shows. She took all but a few west end polls. Looking at the 2 constituencies:
If the NDP doesn't pick up Brandon West, it will be because the party had an attack of Perimiteritis and decided not to invest any resources there. Borotsik is the best the Tories could do, becuase he attracted voters who wouldn't normally vote Conservative. The only person I could think of for the Tories who could match Borotsik would be Leeann Rowatt (her seat will be eliminated with the re-distribution) but unless she's willing to move, she would be vulnerable to the charge of being a parachute.
Brandon East should be safe. Yes, Errol Black lost his council seat, but by 2 votes, and local labour council president Jan Chaboyer picked up a council spot in that part of Brandon. Combined, this tells me that the NDP brand in Brandon is gaining in strength. As for Mike Waddell? I wouldn't write him off as a schnook. He is very well-respected in Brandon through his work through Youth For Christ. I actually suspect that the rising PC total for Brandon East has much, if not everything, to do with Waddell, and once again, I can't think off hand of anybody who could run in Brandon East. If people vote for their preferred local candidate, Waddell wins. If people vote for their preferred party, Caldwell wins.
Wonderful news!
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/McGifford-wont-run-again-1...
Good riddance!
I second the motion.
Curious... what was so wrong with McGifford?
She showed an apalling lack of leadership in her capacity as Minister for Advanced Education, effectively going against NDP policy on the tuition freeze. Ancillary fees rose under her watch, and there was no effort whatsoever to clamp down on the university administrators.
Do we necessarily want politicians to "clamp down" on university administrators??
I think most students in Nova Scotia would appreciate the almost $2000 difference in tuition with Manitoba being one of the lowest in the country.
It's not a matter of "clamping down". The provincial government has every right to regulate tuition fees, and most provincial governments do so. University administrators tend to go for the highest fees they can get away with - especially in a province like Manitoba where for many programs the U of M has a monopoly in the province, which is why it needs to be regulated. Unfortunately, what the NDP did was start out with a decent policy (10% reduction at the outset was good, but the tuition freeze is by definition neutral, and essentially "signs off on" Tory tuition increases from the 90s), but then choose to allow so many loopholes such as ancillary fee increases, faculty specific increases, and that many students were not protected from tuition fee increases. Then they abandoned even that and decided to increase tuition fees by 5% a year.
Besides, the NDP is clamping down on university administrators already. They're trying to force them to freeze wages so it doesn't undermine the wage freeze they're trying to get out of MGEU. Clearly, that's way more progressive and more beneficial to the working class than freezing or lowering tuition so working class students can go without being saddled with debt.
Well, looks like you guys got your wish: Southdale MLA Erin Selby is the new Advanced Education Minister.
This is clearly an effort by Selinger to shore up the NDP's middle-class, suburban appeal. There will no doubt be some consternation over the fact that Western Manitoba (ie, Drew Caldwell) has - again - been left out of cabinet.
Selinger is following the same path Doer did in replacing ministers who are not running again in the run-up to the election (which makes sense). Until last month's announcement, I assumed McGifford was running again in Fort Garry-Riverview and that's why Kerri Irvin-Ross was nominated for the more marginal Fort Richmond seat. Anyone know who's running in Fort Garry-Riverview? Should be a reasonably safe seat.
[Edited to add: found the answer. Former party prez, Fort Rouge nomination candidate and Winnipeg South Centre federal candidate Jamie Allum is running in Fort Garry-Riverview. The Tory candidate, Ian Rabb, looks like he's no slouch, but the demographics of this area seem to have shifted significantly away from the Tories in recent years.]
School Division Chair Jim Murray will carry the NDP banner in Brandon West, which is odd since nearly everyone who follows local politics even loosely says his views are more in line with the PC Party. Long time NDPer and recently-ousted school trustee George Buri will run for the Liberals. It seems to me that there will be some consternation over who to vote for, and I wouldn't even be surpirsed to see Buri take second to the PCs there. Which is a shame, as the ingredients were there for the NDP to pick up that seat.
Anyone who has followed Manitoba politics as of late wouldn't consider that odd.
I feel badly for all those dentistry and MBA students in Manitoba whose tuition increases will be the highest. It sucks to be middle and upper-middle class in that province. Meanwhile students in Liberal Ontario are paying highest tuition fees in the country on average.