babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Syndicate
Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Comment policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: About the RPN | Become a podcaster
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001- the authors
You (willfully?) don't understand. Forum asked who people would vote for - if they hadn't already voted - giving 40% Liberal, etc. But they also asked people if they had already voted in advance polls, and 30% of respondents said, yes they had, of whom, 35% were NDP supporters, etc. That portion of Forum's report is like an exit poll, not a poll asking for voting intentions. There's no mystery, unless you want to conveniently introduce mystery to this data - which was at the end of Forum's report. Here again :
"One third of voters (30%) cast their vote before election day, and this is more likely to have been a New Democrat voter (35%) than either a Conservative (32%) or a Liberal (31%)."
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2415/razor-thin-liberal-majority-seen/
So, again, because some people don't seem to understand. If 35% of the people who voted early were NDP supporters, they voted for the NDP. Duh.
"One third of voters (30%) cast their vote before election day, and this is more likely to have been a New Democrat voter (35%) than either a Conservative (32%) or a Liberal (31%)."
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2415/razor-thin-liberal-majority-seen/
also:
If these results are projected up to seats in the newly expanded House of Commons, the Liberals would take a slim majority of 171, which is 1 more than required for a majority, while the Conservatives would form the opposition with 109 seats. The NDP would seat 46 members, the Bloc 11, and the Greens would retain their single seat.
11 seats for the Bloc is ambitious. They could be as low as 4.
If Forum's advance poll numbers had favoured the Libs, you can bet that the Homer Simpson of trolls, pondering, would be screaming it from the roof tops. Or more correctly, the people who play pondering. Even the
most committed, leisured, insomniac could not post the hours and with the frequency La pondering does. Ekos said the advance polls favoured the Cons and their supporters have indeed been shouting it.
Politics is a blood sport. If he is that empty headed and inept, then he should have been wiped out by two tougher opponents (Harper & Mulcair). I recall Mulcair saying he was going to wipe the floor with Trudeau in the debates, and everyone here on rabble was cheering on Mulcair to have him go mano a mano with Trudeau. Intead the opposite happened.
What arrogance and narcissism? Source please or stop the rhetoric.
Once again, you say he is entitled, but the evidence doesn't support it. He ran for party leadership of a broken party and won, and that makes him entitled? Or is he entitled because he revived the party?
This describes Mulcair. Or do you really believe that maintaining the status quo while we grow into social spending at 1% of GDP per year is a good plan?
Once again, source please. You only think he's an asshole because he's on the other team and he's probably going to win.
Trudeau didn't release an outlier poll with redacted data to try to undermine his opponent right before a debate. Trudeau didn't release attack ads based on Mulcair's past (though there was ammunition there to do so). Trudeau didn't belittle his opponents during the debates. Trudeau didn't release a misleading ad campaign saying he was the only option to voters who want to turf Harper. Trudeau's not the one who flip flopped mid campaign on attack ads, after calling them desperate. Trudeau didn't flip flop in the last week on marijuana policy, adopting his opponent's position after criticizing it in a debate.
No wonder the NDP misread the ABC crowd so badly, if they're staffed with blind partisans like you.
Trudeau may not have released a poll. But he did release an ad with a blatant lie in it.
When dealing with people like you, I am always torn between contempt and pity. Do I go back to first principles and painstakingly point out how adults interact with each other in mature discussions? What you do is, you read all the sentences that the other person has written and then think how those sentences might relate to other sentences before you embarrass yourself asking questions that make you look stupid.
So my question to you is, do you really find Justin's "career arc" acceptable, or only when in your personal camp? If a Conservative leader had gone from never running a single thing in his life, not even a lemonade stand, to wanting to run all of Canada, would you criticise that, I wonder? I think you would, but you don't when it's a Liberal candidate. For myself, I can assure you that if somebody in the NDP tried to pull that shit, the party would lose my support. Apparently your own standards are not so high.
Typical Liberal. All this is about electioneering and messaging. Nothing at all about qualifications, competence, or experience, because of course, that's an argument Justin will always lose.
I'm not trying to single the guy out when I say he doesn't know what he's doing. I'm not saying he's stupid. I'm just making the logical connection that you, apparently, are not. Prime Minister isn't an easy job. It's incredibly challenging and stressful, and requires tons of skills that take a lifetime to build, and any person who has not spent their lifetime building those skills, no matter how gifted, will not be up to those stresses and challenges. Like George Bush before him, Justin is a guy who can fake a passable imitation of a leader with enough support and resources backing him up, but he doesn't have the capacity to be the real thing. They don't have it because they were both off doing other things with themselves during the time they would have been building the skills and experience to nurture that capacity.
This isn't about sports teams for me. I couldn't give two flying fucks about the NDP's electoral fortunes unless it comes with improved government and rational legislation, but creating those things is harder than it looks. Even the best-intentioned people get swallowed up in the political machine and find true change hard to accomplish. The notion that some charming lad could wander in off the street and set it all to rights with his gumption and optimism is woefully niave. Like, on a "Mr.Deeds goes to Washington" level. It's a movie-of-the-week that bears no relation to reality.
Back in reality, even the toughest and smartest people find the pitfalls of trying to swim against the current in our political system incredibly taxing, pushing them to the brink of their abilities, forcing them to use the fullest capacity of their skills and experience. Skills and experience that Justin has none of. He will be a puppet of his corrupt handlers, and there's really nothing he can do to stop it, because he doesn't know how. He doesn't have any of the skill and experience that would enable him to fight back against it, and there's been no indication that he even wants to.
The man is a simple figurehead, and instead of decrying this debasement of our political process where charming speech-givers get propped up to win elections while real decisions are made behind closed doors by shadowy elites, you cheer it. Hooray for the figurehead! Best figurehead ever! Have you forgotten that being Prime Minister is an actual job, and not a title you get for winning a game show? Are you aware that elections are more than just a season of Survivor, and that the person who wins doesn't get a cheque, but the right to run our lives and our country? It's a real job, probably the hardest job in the country, and it requires real skills and experience, and the consequences of not having that skill and experience can be catastrophic.
It is incredibly arrogant for anyone at all to think they can waltz into the job without those skills and experience and still somehow be effective. It's just as arrogant for Justin to think he can be PM as it is for him to think he could run a hospital with no hospital skills or experience, or a University. If he had never gone into politics and pursued those jobs with the same resume he has now, I feel certain you would be laughing at him right along with me, but you don't when he wants to run the entire country. Does that really make sense? Or do you just convince yourself it does because you care more about whether your camp wins or not than you do about whether we have someone running Canada who actually knows what they're doing?
Admit it. You wouldn't want him to run a hospital or a University, but you're fine with him running the country, and that doesn't make any sense. Your views are not rational. They are pure partisanship.
If you're going to read it that way, then 24% voted for the Greens and 14% voted for the Bloc. Which adds up to well over 100%.
How do you mean? 35+32+31=98
What am I missing?
The Orange Crush had many neophyte MPs that did not have a background suggesting that they had the skills to represent their constituency.
It is up to voters to decide who will represent them. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Trudeau brought the party back from near death reviving it financially and it appears will be bringing the party from 3rd place to 1st, something many said could not be done.
A democratic leader's skills are measured by their ability to lead not by a paper resume.
The ability to handle stress is not resume based. I don't agree that it is as complicated as you think it is. It isn't a one man band job. A good leader draws on the experience of others, listens to conflicting advice, then chooses what they believe is the best path forward. Trudeau has convictions of his own on how governing should be done and has a vision of Canada he wants to promote.
What is woefully naive is thinking voters have any expectation of that. From what I can tell voters are pretty jaded and consider all three parties to be similar. Although NDP provincial governments have done some good things they have not transformed any province into an example of best practices of governing.
I haven't noticed anyone trying to do that.
That feeds the notion that regular people are incapable of understanding the big decisions on war and the economy and social benefits.
Prime ministers don't write the budget, write laws, or negotiate trade deals. It doesn't take a genius to unmuzzle scientists or reform the Senate. The Prime Minister gives sets out goals and direction.
Trudeau didn't take the decision on the F-35s in a vacumn nor on the advice of a single person.
But he didn't waltz into it. He won his seat multiple times, then won the leadership of the party, then convinced voters he and his party are the best choice.
I wouldn't be laughing. I would be asking how he accomplished it.
He doesn't intend to run Canada. We don't have a President. He sees the position as chairman of the board rather than CEO and leading requiring a collaborative effort that includes stakeholders in decision-making.
Trudeau does know about politics, he doesn't know about hospitals or universities.
24% for the Greens, 14% for the Bloc, 25% for Other Parties. It's on Page 8 of the PDF file.
Oh -- okay I did not see the question as I had only looked at the thread here.
Thanks for clarifying.
It is clear what this means:
35% of those who said they were NDP voted in the advance poll -- not that 35% of those who voted in the advance poll did so for the NDP -- huge difference.
The total says 25% said they voted in the advance poll.
BTW I would not trust these stats because there is a bias.
The bias is that those who participate are likely to be more committed and want to be counted and therefore are more likely to have voted early.
Actually, there are two qualities I look for most in a Prime Minister. The ability to attract competent "staff" (MPs, organizers, campaign managers, etc, etc) and ethics. With Trudeau's speaking fees - through a speaking agency or not - Mulcair should have won on the second point by a blowout. Too bad Mulcair's campaign was both incompetent and unethical.
Considering that Trudeau's team has shown far more competence this election than Mulcair's team, I'm going to say they are more qualified and competent. And you've missed the entire point of my argument. When the Liberal do anything even a little bad, it's "oh my god look how corrupt the Liberals are." But when the NDP runs a campaign that has more ethical lapses than the Senate, it's just "electioneering and messaging."
No, just that he's unqualified, incompetent, and inexperienced.
It's also not something that we should encourage people to be doing alone.
Mulcair couldn't even keep it together for a 78-day campaign. The NDP campaign went off the rails when they released the Papineau poll and never recovered. As soon as the NDP fell behind the LPC in public polls the NDP panicked. Trudeau held it together - and kept it clean - when he was behind the in the polls, and he was behind for at least a month.
Then maybe instead of attacking the likeable figurehead, the NDP should have attacked his "corrupt handlers."
Serious?
Trudeau has shown a willingness to learn and take advice from experts in fields he's not knowledgeable in (see: marijuana policy). If he had Harper's attitude, then I'd be worried.
Well, except that Trudeau has years of political experience and literally grew up surrounded by the most powerful political figures of the time. Maybe he knows a bit more about politics than hospital management, mmkay?
At the beginning of this election, I didn't even have a camp. Trudeau has impressed me and Mulcair has disgusted me.
Yes.
Sorry, I don't believe you vote anything other than Liberal. Period!
I don't think the comparison to Bush is fair. Bush had actually been elected governor of Texas and had done that for 5 years before deciding to run for President.
Yes, but governer of Texas is a largely ceremonial position with little legislative power. It's not that far off from the years Justin spent benchwarming, doing nothing of note or merit. They both won elections on the strength of their last name and then just snuggled down and slept through their terms. And then were elected to the highest political office of their countries. It says less about their abilities than it does about the degeneration of the political cultures they live in.
Nanos, Leger, and Ipsos-Reid did particularly well. Even Forum wasn't far off. EKOS and Angus Reid not so good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015Waaah. Justin is inexperienced. Dubya is a better politician. Wait,how much experience had Thomas Mulcair? Oh,right....waaah.
+1,000,000
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/10/how-polls-and-projections-did.h...
Major Reset in Federal Vote Share
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2644/major-reset-in-federal-vote-share/
This is certainly a warning for the government. A lead of 8 points when both opposition parties are in a leadership race is hardly comfortable.
It is also a warning to the NDP. If they remain this low, since the Liberals seem to be on their way to breaking a promise on getting rid of FPTP, the NDP will be seen as vote splitters in a context that could favour the Conservatives. The Liberals will certainly make the case for the NDP to vote strategically.
The only solution for the NDP, for their part, is to really stand for something not worth turning your back on to help the Liberals. The NDP often forgets that the antedote for the strategic voting model is to represent something so important and meaningful that it is better to throw your vote away to be recorded as in favour of real change than to help the Liberals out of a jam. The NDP when it lacks focus and principle is more vulnerable to strategic voting. And there is the problem: it is also vulnerable when it is very low.
I couldn't find a relevent forum for this but I thought I'd share it. Ranked voting sounds like a damn good idea. Certainly better than FPTP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW8MY8PQJpo