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Alberta politics, election thread
August 12, 2011 - 9:52am
There is an increasing chance of an Alberta election this fall. I think it's time for a thread about that.
A couple of links to get the thread started.
First, from the Edmonton Journal...
And here is a link to the website for Shannon Phillips, who is running for office in Lethbridge West. The NDP did surprisingly well in Lethbridge in the federal election, and I'm told our federal results in Lethbridge West were near 40%.
And finally, the most recent polling from Environics:
PC: 54 (up from 47% in 2008)
Wildrose: 16 (up from 7%)
Lib: 13.5 (down from 26%)
NDP: 13.5 (up from 8.5%)
Alberta Party: 2.5 (did not exist in 2008)
May 2011 federal election results transposed onto the new Lethbridge provincial boundaries:
Lethbridge East - CONS 52%, NDP 30%, LIB 11%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%
Lethbridge West - CONS 46%, NDP 38%, LIB 9%, GRN 4%, OTH 2%
I know almost nothing about Lethbridge. Going by those results, it would seem that the federal Conservatives are less popular in the western parts of Lethbridge than in the eastern parts. What would you think accounts for this difference in voting habits?
Yes, I believe the U of L is in Lethbridge West.
A cat, a dead woman and a rival politician walk into the Liberal leadership race...
I'm excited about Shannon Phillips as a candidate in Lethbridge for the prov election.
Only the Alberta NDP appears to have its act together going into the next contest.
At the risk of being mocked for celebrating the fact we are in third place, well, WE'RE #3!
The Liberal slide continues:
Source
Cue the Alberta NDP theme song!
Not clear whether these polls were taken at the same time or not, only that they were in July. I think the Alberta Liberals are fast turning into a joke in any case. The Environics poll would suggest a massive Conservative majority with, depending on vote concentrations, the possibility of an NDP official opposition. The other poll would suggest, depending on vote concentrations, a much more modest Conservative majority or perhaps a minority (which would be fascinating) with a WR opposition.
Is there going to be a Prov election in AB in November?
If only Shania wasn't well known to be from Ontario, that song would work
I see the Alberta Liberals have a new leader... former Conservative MLA Raj Sherman. Cue certain posters to come in and inform of us all the importance of merging the NDP with those same Liberals.
Conservative-turned-Independent Maverick-turned-Liberal Raj Sherman is now leader of the opposition. That is ... different.
Raj Sherman, for all his insanity, clearly has some kind of strange raw political talent. Even before he won the Liberal leadership, he was arguably the second most prominent opposition figure in Alberta. He has charisma, and a Layton-esque level of energy. In 5 months, he essentially staged a hostile takeover of what is still technically the largest opposition party in Alberta. He might be able to tap into what is a very large populist base in the province. So, I don't think I can rule out him leading the party back to the official opposition again.
The problem is Sherman is a Conservative. And inexperinced. And possibly insane. Leading a party that up to this point has identified itself as centrist and pragmatic and a government-in-waiting. Even if Sherman were to (very theoretically) pick up support the Liberal Party isn't lead by a liberal. This is a horrible, horrible day for small-l centrist Alberta liberals. However innumerous they are.
With the NDP having closed the gap with the Alberta Liberals in voter intent, and the Alberta Party serving as a second viable centrist vehicle, we'll be seeing anything from a small leak in supporters and organizers, to a complete implosion and realignment of the Opposition. So I don't think I can rule out him sinking the party to 5th before the election is even called either.
He (Sherman) was on P&P tonight - Solomon said he was kicked out of the PC's because he dared to criticize the PC plan to totally privatize health care delivery in Alberta. He said he's going to run as Alberta Liberal leader on a platform of defending medicare. He's also running against PC mismanagement of the Alberta economy - running up a deficit while oil is $100 a barrel.
Conservative-turned-Independent Maverick-turned-Liberal Raj Sherman is now leader of the opposition. That is ... different.
Well, the Tory-to-Liberal aspect isn't all THAT different. Nancy Betkowski was a very high-profile Tory(ran against Klein for the leadership) who left the ruling party, changed her surname to Macbeth, and then got elected Liberal leader.
Under her stewardship, the party went down to their usual defeat. They lost over half their seats in the one election she fought as leader.
I'm predicting the same fate for the Liberals under Raj, but I guess we'll wait and see.
Is Alberta the "Texas Of The North"?
With Ted Morton as Rick Perry and Danielle Steele as Ron Paul
Former Alberta NDP Leader Ray Martin announced today he will run in Edmonton Glenora. Ray had previously said he wouldn't run again, but was inspired by all the recent focus on the life of Jack Layton.
The riding is currently held by the Conservatives, but it's traditionally gone back and forth between the Liberals and Tories. Based on the very hostile reaction on Twitter of the President of the Edmonton Glenora Liberals - Ray may just be a threat in the riding.
Why is Martin running there rather than in the riding he held and lost in the last election?
Because Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview already has a provincial NDP candidate in place, Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Manning would have made more sense... but there is a candidate in place there too, Cindy Olsen
Frankly, i think he had nowhere else to run, and Glenora was the best riding for the NDP to have a shot at electing a member. in 2004 NDP was 30% and 15% in 2008 (big Liberal/Tory battle) The Liberals are bitter/mad cause the NDP now has a) a big name candidate, b) they have NONE in place and are not gaining traction while the NDP is.
I'm glad Ray Martin is throwing his hat back in the ring, he still has a lot to contribute. Edmonton-Glenora is an interesting riding. Does it not include Liberal leaning areas of Edmonton Centre? In other words, if the NDP won it provincially, or made inroads into those Liberal areas, it could help Lewis Cardinal if he ran there federally again? Also, how is a progressive supposed to have much sympathy for the Alberta Liberals anymore after they just elected Raj Sherman as leader? Laurie Blakeman, arguably the more progressive choice, finished third.
The ground is shifting in Alberta politics and I feel like the Liberals are getting increasingly squeezed. With progressive-leaning leaders like David Swan and Laurie Blakeman getting marginalised, centrist (and some progressive) Liberals drifting to the Alberta Party, and ex-Red Tories like Kevin Taft riding into the sunset, the NDP both provincially and federal could be on its way up.
Here is a good map of how the 2008 Votes were distributed: credit to Daveberta
http://daveberta.ca/2010/06/new-electoral-boundaries-transposed-with-2008-results/
Edmonton-Glenora is in the middle, looks like a backwards L (left of the square looking Edmonton Centre which is right in the middle). The centre/centre-right is now very cluttered up, Raj is populist for sure but will only attract soft conservatives, while the Liberals will lose their soft left flank to the NDP, the greens are gone and would be attracted more to the NDP than anyone else i would assume. The last poll gave the major momentum to the NDP who were tied with the Liberals.
http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/can2011/48012.html - is the poll-by-poll map from May... unfortunately it looks like most of the provincial area voted more Tory then anything while Edmonton Centre (prov) went more to the NDP
Thanks lil.Tommy, a few notes:
1) If you look in Edmonton Glenora near the river (e.g. in Glenora) the Federal Liberal vote is still very robust, as I would have guessed. This is where provincial NDP inroads would help the federal NDP. It will not be an easy task as these are better off voters.
2) There is some clear spillover of support from Edmonton Calder. That gives me hope for an NDP breakthrough in Edmonton.
3) I hope you are correct about the Greens. In the 2008 federal election, they outpolled the NDP in many areas, particularly in Calgary. Things seem to be looking up for the NDP in Edmonton, but what about Calgary? What about the core urban polls there where Nenshi came through, where the Liberals can compete? What about the NDP in the North and what about the NDP on reserve(s)? Is the NDP on the map in any of the obvious cultural rural/farming communities (e.g. Ukrainian, Polish, etc.)? What is the face of the NDP in a lot of the growing small towns (e.g. Red Deer and those within a half hours [no traffic] drive of Calgary)?
ETA: Where can one find out what ridings have nominated Alberta NDP candidates?
i find Daveberta a really good resource, i know hes a Liberal but i still find hes more about delivering the political news rather then taking a very partisan stand
http://daveberta.ca/alberta-election/ - list of nominated Candidates for all partites
The Greens were dissolved in 2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Alberta
Edmonton seems to be the place where the NDP can be almost assured of some gains (Calder, Beverly-Clareview, now Glenora is in the fray too) They did really well in Lethbridge in May and there is buzz around Shannon Phillips Lethbridge West
I normally try to avoid joking about someone's typos but Danielle Steele made me laugh. Danielle Smith's platform is more Stephen King than Danielle Steele.
Quote: "The riding is currently held by the Conservatives, but it's traditionally gone back and forth between the Liberals and Tories. Based on the very hostile reaction on Twitter of the President of the Edmonton Glenora Liberals - Ray may just be a threat in the riding."
.... or the president of the Liberals might just be shaking his head at the potential vote split that will no doubt occur, allowing the Tories, to surprise surprise! walk up the middle to win.
Anybody have any intel on the Tory leadership race? I was discussing it with a friend who hails from Calgary, and he expected that the top two finishers would be Mar and Morton, in that order, and likely Mar would not have 50% on the first ballot to win. It seems that whoever finishes third will be key. If it's someone like Horner, we could have a repeat of the Stelmach scenario where the third-place candidate picks up the support of the candidates who drop off the ballot, and becomes the compromise candidate. If it's Redford, that probably guarantees a Mar win, as she will not likely pick up enough support from the dropped candidates to vault over Morton into second, and when she is dropped off the second ballot her preferences would likely go to Mar.
Seems to me that for whatever reason, Gary Mar is not as 'polarizing' as Jim Dinning was among the grassroots, so at this point it's probably his to lose. Anyone else have any thoughts?