babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
British Columbia Leaders Debate
April 29, 2013 - 4:46pm
The only televised debate between B.C.'s four main party leaders will take place on April 29, 2013 from 6:30 p.m. PT to 8 p.m.
CBC will broadcast the debate live on radio, television and online, along with several other local broadcasters.
Thanks for starting this thread, mmphosis. I moved it to the BC/Alberta forum!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/04/29/bc-leaders-debate.html
sounds like a game show
Conservative and Liberal leaders on the defensive on "burning questions"
So far, I think Adrian Dix is winning the game show.
I'm glad that Dix is winning the game show. Get him to ask for a letter - give me an N, please. Next, give me D. Finally a P.
what's that spell - yeah yeah, I know it's silly but game showish.
lots of climate change "debate" on the game show
http://thetyee.ca/Tyeenews/2013/04/29/Live-Blog/
As my wife is saying after we watched them for a while. Blah blah blah blah blah.
It looks like no one is going to win this debate and that means it will have little effect on the vote. All the NDP needs to win is a draw.
although an unscientific poll on the CBC webpage here's the results:
Has this televised debate changed the way you will vote?
No (84%)
Yes (16%)
Thus it would reinforce this outcome:
New Poll Gives Dix 'Insurmountable' 22-Point Lead
Clark didn't answer the question on legalizing / decriminalizing marijuana, but she did respond with "GROW" the economy.
Dix said yes. I think Jane Sterk had a good response in saying it is a health issue, not a criminal one.
Cummins referred to working with the United States.
Dix made a dig at Clark in response to the question on photo radar. He referred to cameras at stop lights.
In both John Cummins opening and closing statements he said that Christy Clark is going to lose and Adrian Dix is going to win.
Honestly, Dix seemed nervous and had poor messaging in a debate he should have won fairly easily, considering Clark's horrible leadership. Meanwhile, Christy Clark was polished and on point, if a little negative. I'd expect the 10 (Abacus) to 22 (JMI) point lead to narrow, but not collapse. Dix should still win, but a reverse 2001 scenario that effectively gives the NDP two mandates and possibly fractures the right is out of the question.
Sterk seemed competent, got a jab in on Dix from the left, and faced exactly zero attacks from the other leaders. This debate helped her cause, and might have made her even more competive on Vancouver Island, where the party has started polling over 20%.
Cummins was shaky, but got some jabs to Clark in from the right and played to his lone hope of snagging super right-wing Peace River North.
I'm not sure we watched the same debate. I thought Clark might have been polished but she was absolutely vacuous and was caught out lying through her teeth about the bond rating agencies, as well as avoiding totally the question about Marijuana. Perhaps Dix was nervous at some points, but he did as well as he needed to. Which jab was that from Stark? She missed a great opportunity to promote the guaranteed livable income, and while an extra $200 per month is a pittance to some of us it can make a huge difference to someone struggling to make ends meet. You can't solve poverty overnight. Some polls have had the Greens ahead of the Liberals on Vancouver Island, but 20% won't necessarily win them any seats. I would say Clark and Cummings did poorly and Dix and Sterk did reasonably well.
I think that Christy Clark had excellent delivery, it's just that her message had zero credibility, a point which was reinforced by the many moments where the moderator called her out on lying.
Adrian Dix had a difficult job. I felt like sometimes he was trapped between what he wanted to say based on his convictions, and a couple of repetitive talking points that he had prepped before the debate. I think he was not 100 percent there during the first half hour of the debate, and then suddenly became much more present and engaged. I actually wonder if he was having a blood sugar moment at one point.
Sterk made some very reasonable points against Dix on where perhaps the NDP isn't going far enough, and when he stumbled out a line about $20 making a difference to families on social assistance... I honestly found it incredibly insulting, and I could see that even he didn't believe those words coming out of his own mouth. The core of his message was good when he wasn't on talking points. In fact the only moment that didn't solidly place Sterk to the left of Dix was when she name dropped a former Progressive Conservative. That doesn't mean her party is left wing, but it tells us where she personally stands. I am actually quite hoping now that she does get her one or two island seats to give us conscientious voices in opposition. She's improved considerably since I saw her debate in the 2008 Fairview byelection. I don't think there's any grave concern to be had about her spoiling the election in the Liberals' favour, at least not this year.
It wasn't just the $20. I think that question was a wash. Sterk failed to promote the Guaranteed Livable Income, and Dix managed to show that you can't solve poverty overnight.
Overall, I think there was no clear winner, but that Cummins was the clear loser. NDP still looks to be on track for a decent-sized majority government.
Clark had the best delivery; she promoted her message with a level of conviction that none of the other leaders have. Her performance will probably help to stave off the threat from Cummins and the BC Conservatives on the right, but will not help her regain support she's lost to the NDP, because she has no credibility with those voters.
Dix held his own, and his performance will reassure a lot of NDP supporters. At the same time, Dix was hampered by the NDP's meagre platform, and the way it's structured in a "this much and no more" fashion. He wants to present a positive vision for British Columbia, but there simply isn't a lot there in the NDP platform that will do all that much to roll back the massive attacks on workers and government services, and the massive increase in inequality, that have taken place under the BC Liberals these last 12 years. Apart from the issue of tankers and pipelines, Dix said nothing that is likely to convince left-wing voters who've abandoned the NDP for not being left enough to come back into the fold. This bodes well for the Green Party, who've picked up much of this vote.
Dix was clear on his response to the issue of the backdated memo, and I suspect he's better immunized now against this line of attack. However, Dix fared poorly in a couple of exchanges with Clark, when he was talking during Clark's responses to his questions. This will register negatively with voters who are on the fence about voting NDP. Taken together, these high and low moments will probably come out as a wash in terms of public opinion. And the NDP is far enough ahead in the polls that Dix's performance was probably enough to keep the NDP on track for a decent-sized majority government.
Sterk did the best job of outlining a positive vision for BC. Her mostly solid performance will help to shore up her voting base, and may enable the Green to pick up support on Vancouver Island where they might be seen as being more in contention. However, Sterk missed an opportunity to deliver a significant blow to Dix on fracking. Instead of trying to call out Dix on fracking, an issue on which he's weak and on which opposition can only grow, she tried to call Dix out on Kinder Morgan, an issue on which Dix has been solid ever since he announced his opposition to the project on earth day. So while the Greens have room to grow, I don't forsee a major change in the party's fortunes based on Sterk's performance.
Cummins was hampered by questions about the rogue BC Conservaitve candidates, which forced him onto the defensive a fair bit. Cummins made a valiant attempt to deflect Clark's attacks on the issue, but the optics of openly bigoted candidates doesn't look good, and there's only so much Cummins can do to reassure voters. The rest of the time, Cummins was only just ok, and his so-so performance combined with Clark's solid delivery doesn't help the Conservatives keep the support they've gained from the Liberals.
The Liberals could stand to regain a lot of the support they've lost to the Conservatives, which would narrow the gap between the Liberals and NDP. The Greens could also make some modest gainst from the NDP and possibly among non-voters. I don't see the NDP picking up support based on Dix's performance, and I also don't see the Liberals picking up support from the NDP or Greens.
Since everyone here is talking about how the debate went, who won and did not, here's a poll from Tyee:
POLL: NDP's Adrian Dix won leaders debate, Ipsos Reid finds
More people impression increased for Dix than didn't, and ditto for Sterk. In that category both Clark and Cummins received negative impressions.
And from the Van Sun Vaughn Palmer: His confidence growing and the debate behind him, Dix remains in control
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/Vaughn+Palmer+confidence+growing+debate+behind+remains+control/8313149/story.html#ixzz2Rwgg01hc
Now I believe that Palmer is no friend of the NDP but it sure didn't show up in his remarks:
snip
snip
So Cummins gives the NDP the best political advertising one could get coming out of the debate - where the Conservative says what everybody in the room (and audience) knows: Clark the emperor has no clothes, and Dix will be the new emperor with clothes.
From above Ipsos poll - looks like your assessments of the debate was better than mine. Dix wins between the two main leaders, Sterk comes out looking better and Cummins has a very bad night.
Winner: Dix 35%, Clark 30%, Sterk 10%, Cummins 3%
Loser: Cummins 36%, Clark 27%, Dix 16%, Sterk 11%
Most Likeable: Sterk 33%, Clark 31%, Dix 21%, Cummins 4%
Impressions of leaders:
Sterk - 42% Improved, 15% Worsened (+27)
Dix - 32% Improved, 28% Worsened (+4)
Clark - 25% Improved, 34% Worsened (-9)
Cummins - 19% Improved, 45% Worsened (-26)
Some do not believe that Clark provides the best delivery, as she "giggled too much", thus finding her delivery annoying.
Over at The Straight Goods, Adrian Dix Wins Debate, Christy Clark Snickers
And The Straight Goods, delivers the unabashed results
Adrian Dix..35%....Christy Clark..30%
A second question, Who has the best policies...the winner was..
Adrian Dix..37%...Christy Clark..24%
Forget Alise Mills, all spin, no substance..Forget Baldrey, he was having hair issues.....
This pundit called it seconds after the debate ended
Next
Dix delivered that last line in his obvious straight forward way (it was funny)
Finally, the moderator helps here big time and outs Clark
Next up, It’s All Over for Clark/Liberals
Congratulations, Premier Dix. The second and final leaders’ debate in the 2013 provincial election wasn’t even half over, and I could see that Clark had blown it: same old, same old … even though the polls, including one released a few hours before the tv debate, have shown the Liberal 1990-s attack style campaign strategy has NOT been working.
Next the gaffes (and I missed this but I tuned in late)
“You would take the money from the many to spend it on the few,” Clark spat at NDP Leader Adrian Dix. And who were “the few” she was talking about? Kids living in poverty!!! What kind of a politician ,let alone a premier, would dismiss a question on why BC has the worst child poverty record in Canada (or second worst, depending on who you believe) by marginalising poor children as “the few” and clearly not as important as “the many” … those of us enjoying the better life?? Yikes!
The pot question
About Cummins and Sterk
Dix shows integrity, sincerity and not being scary, so essentially his demeanor actually works for him as he doesn't look like he is hiding anything or selling snake oil
On Clark NOT being a good communicator
It's all over except the voting - amen
West Coast, Sterk has a good TV delivery, but she actually failed in delivering some of her key platform planks. Dix is what he is and at the end of the day, his perceived wooden delivery works for him because he comes across as honest, and oozing integrity because he doesn't hide the facts and is about the facts.
So Sterk wins on likability but Dix wins in the big categories that matter.
Finally if interested in partisan polling, here you go ~ Poll: Who won Monday's B.C. election debate?
Don't be shy, you know how to jack up the poll
Yeah Jan, it looks like you're right.
Also if you listened closely they said "clothing statements" instead of "closing". They may have been hinting at Jane Sterk's excellent use of purple.
Some very observant eyes noted that the backdrop of the debate appeared to include bubble wrap in places.
I think that campaign teams need to recoginize the strengths and weaknesses of their leaders in various communication modes. The strength of a team is to help that leader make their weakness a strength. I think the orange BC team knows that Dix is more comfortable when he speaks to the facts, and trying to make him what he is not, doesn't work.
I wonder how many people actually watched the debate. The format as usual didn't really lend itself to anything except sound bites. As well the moderator was not very good. I would rate the debate a D-. I don't think it will result in many voters changing their votes.
This election is likely to see the voter turnout at best hover at 50% and if Christy collapses totally it could fall below the 2009 numbers. In 2009 the NDP percentage of the vote was 42%, in 2005 it was 41.5%, in 2001 it was 22%, in 1996 it was 39.5%, in 1991 it was 41%, in 1986 it was 43%.
The Liberal/Socred vote in the same period was 2009 46%, in 2005 it was 46%, in 2001 it was 58%, in 1996 it was 42%, in 1991 it was 24%, in 1986 it was 49%.
The NDP is currently polling above its normal range but not by much more than the margin of error in any of the polls. Other than my friends who are working on the campaign most people are yawning through the whole process wishing it would be over soon. Christy has been campaigning for two years already and people are just tired of it.
The numbers above show that we change governments in BC mostly by the government in power losing its support accompanied by a minor up swing in the support for the Opposition party. I think that Christy has now become the NDP's biggest asset as she stumbles from one mistake to another. The red light is a minor thing but it feeds into the ethnic campaign memos scandal. No one is impressed watching her throw her long time right hand women under the bus and then boot her son in the same direction. Her karma must be really bad with the red light story breaking at the same time as the horrific accident where five people were killed by a driver running a red light.
Yes, so sad for the family; I can't image what the husband/father/son must be feeling right now.
Clark, well I'm sure that she sees how the "red light" will be like the final topedo which sinks her ship much quicker. Final nail in coffin.
The red light incident and Christy basically calling her son a liar will convince some of her soft voters that staying home is the best idea. I am disappointed in Cummins since he is not running a credible campaign and may not even win a single seat in the Legislature.
I feel very sorry for her son who has to go to school and face his peers after his Mom trashed him in public.