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Newfoundland and Labrador general election, November 30, 2015

robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

This probably deserves its own thread now that it's only a month away. Not a good start for the NDP:

CBC: Ryan Cleary to announce PC candidacy in St. John's today

Ryan Cleary, who was defeated just last week as a New Democratic MP, will officially reveal plans Friday to become a provincial Tory. 

CBC News has learned that Cleary will seek the PC nomination in Windsor Lake, and will announce his intentions at 3 p.m. at Clovelly golf course, likely with Premier Paul Davis at his side.

If he wins the nomination, Cleary will square off against high-profile Liberal MHA Cathy Bennett in the Nov. 30 election.

According to sources, the PCs believe that landing Cleary as a candidate sends a message that the NDP is a non-factor in this election.

Party insiders also hope it will attract other high profile candidates to their slate.

 


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bekayne
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robbie_dee wrote:

This probably deserves its own thread now that it's only a month away. Not a good start for the NDP:

CBC: Ryan Cleary to announce PC candidacy in St. John's today

Ryan Cleary, who was defeated just last week as a New Democratic MP, will officially reveal plans Friday to become a provincial Tory. 

CBC News has learned that Cleary will seek the PC nomination in Windsor Lake, and will announce his intentions at 3 p.m. at Clovelly golf course, likely with Premier Paul Davis at his side.

If he wins the nomination, Cleary will square off against high-profile Liberal MHA Cathy Bennett in the Nov. 30 election.

According to sources, the PCs believe that landing Cleary as a candidate sends a message that the NDP is a non-factor in this election.

Party insiders also hope it will attract other high profile candidates to their slate.

 

Don't the Tories need them to split the anti-government vote?


Debater
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I guess Cleary figures that it will be easier to get elected as a PC in St. John's next month than as an NDPer?

He also says that he has a 'frosty' relationship with Earle McCurdy.

In any event, this is the fastest switch someone has made from one party to another since David Emerson in 2006.


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

I suspect there will not be an NDP MLA in Atlantic Canada outside of Nova Scotia after the NL election. That being said, Cleary is going to have an uphill battle with his new team, both because the Liberals are really rolling right now and because he will carry the stench of treachery.

Amazing that there could be Liberal governments in 7/10 provinces Dec. 1, with the Saskatchewan Party also being basically a Lib/Con coalition. On the other hand that also means the Liberal brand will own responsibility for everything that happens in the next 3-4 years and I expect not all will be pretty.


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

I know this is a little over-the-top, but I had to look this up on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arwTvFPvpBQ


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Do you think Cleary's defection will have its intended effect? I am not close to NL politics but my impression is that he always was all about Ryan Cleary. In any case I'm not sure how sticking it to the NDs helps the PCs as opposed to just pushing more anti-government votes into the Liberal camp.


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

My gut feelings is Cleary was a PC all along. He just used the NDP to get to Ottawa. Cleary wants to get back at the Liberals, not just be opportunistic. He is hurting a lot of people, not just NDP activists, doing this right after the Federal election.

I can't see how this sorry affair will help the PCs.


Debater
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I always suspected Cleary was an opportunist.

Remember when he changed his mind 2 or 3 times about whether he would run for the Layton NDP?


Newfoundlander_...
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Joined: Aug 22 2011

bekayne wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:

This probably deserves its own thread now that it's only a month away. Not a good start for the NDP:

CBC: Ryan Cleary to announce PC candidacy in St. John's today

Ryan Cleary, who was defeated just last week as a New Democratic MP, will officially reveal plans Friday to become a provincial Tory. 

CBC News has learned that Cleary will seek the PC nomination in Windsor Lake, and will announce his intentions at 3 p.m. at Clovelly golf course, likely with Premier Paul Davis at his side.

If he wins the nomination, Cleary will square off against high-profile Liberal MHA Cathy Bennett in the Nov. 30 election.

According to sources, the PCs believe that landing Cleary as a candidate sends a message that the NDP is a non-factor in this election.

Party insiders also hope it will attract other high profile candidates to their slate.

 

Don't the Tories need them to split the anti-government vote?

The Tories need to consolidate the anti-Liberal vote.


Newfoundlander_...
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Joined: Aug 22 2011

robbie_dee wrote:

Do you think Cleary's defection will have its intended effect? I am not close to NL politics but my impression is that he always was all about Ryan Cleary. In any case I'm not sure how sticking it to the NDs helps the PCs as opposed to just pushing more anti-government votes into the Liberal camp.

The NDP had made big gains after the Alberta election. Cleary's candidacy attempts to show they're a non-factor. Last week Davis spoke to the province's largest union and deliered a message on how they needed to vote strategically to avoid massive cuts by the Liberals. Cleary's candidacy  will help with some of that. As well it has been reported in the news that the PCs felt that that landing Cleary would help them land some other prominent candidates who are on the fence.

There's also the fact that the federal NDP and the provincials PCs are quite ideologically similar.


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

Part of me wonders whether Cleary will lose the nomination to another PC who comes forth at the last minute. The PCs can still revel in the damage they did to the NLNDP, especially pouring salt in Jack Harris' wounds. They can say, oh well, the membership has spoken.

Cleary leaves the political stage, disgraced and humiliated.


Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009

Jack Harris interview:

(Discusses the election results, Mid East conflict, & then Ryan Cleary's betrayal):

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Politics/Power+%26+Politics/ID/2678095245/


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Wouldnt it be great if Jack Harris decided to run for the NL NDP against Ryan Cleary!!


Debater
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Maybe someone should suggest it to him?

Might be an interesting contest to watch!


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

I don't know, it's probably best to keep your distance from Cleary in every way.


Newfoundlander_...
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Joined: Aug 22 2011

I don't think a Jack Harris candidacy would look too good, nor do I think he'd run. If he did run against Cleary it'd make it look like he's just running for one reason only. As well, while Harris has had a fair bit of personal popularity his defeat was a big blow and many are saying he lost because he took votes for granted and hardly campaigned.


A_J
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Joined: Aug 12 2008

Local business woman and former St. John's South - Mount Pearl federal NDP candidate Peg Norman's response to Cleary's switch:

I ran as the NDP candidate St. John's South - Mount Pearl in 2004 and 2006. I made the difficult decision to not run a third time in 2008. Ryan Cleary came forward wanting to be the NDP candidate. After meeting with Ryan and getting to know him, I supported his nomination and campaigned with him in his initial run. I supported him again in 2011 when he won.

His move today from the NDP to the provincial PC's is one of the most bizarre actions I've seen in partisan politics in my lifetime. For the past 6 months (and more for some) party members, party supporters, Ryan supporters and the labour movement have been actively working to get him re-elected as a NDP MP for St. John's South-Mt. Pearl.

He gladly took our money and our time. Both, for many, is in short supply. We gave and we volunteered and we encouraged our neighbours and friends and family to support Ryan because we believed in either him or the party. For some, one of the two, some both. In my circle, he was often a hard sell. My belief in the principles of social democracy meant that he was my candidate of choice, as he was a member of the federal NDP and espoused those principles every day. I tend to trust those who speak about their ideology with such conviction. It's what allows me to get through each day, knowing that I am among people who believe that it is possible to do better in our province, our country and our world.

But today. What a kick in the teeth. This move is clearly an indictment of Ryan's dishonesty and disloyalty. This is clearly the actions of a person who has absolutely no understanding of political ideology and is solely motivated by a narcissistic attempt to be on top. Sadly, the greatest fall-out of all of this was the loss of one of the best MP's this province has ever had. Many, sadly, abandoned Jack Harris's campaign to work for Ryan. We foolishly assumed that Jack was safe, and Ryan was at the greatest risk of losing his seat. All knew how important it was to retain both New Democrat seats and worked like dogs to help do it. Here's a text I received from a party supporter Wednesday evening when this news first came to light: "Spent days doing door to door in two polls and pulled votes E-day for the nimrod! Because I thought Jack was safe…" .

What an utter betrayal of everyone who worked to get him re-elected. What an utter betrayal of his constituents. And what an utter betrayal of his colleague Jack Harris. 
This is not the kind of politics I want any part of. Ryan Cleary does not represent anything that I believe in. He is a self-serving, egotistical little man who deserves no repsect from anyone. I feel most for his children and family. They have to continue to live with him.

 


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

I know some people will think I'm totally insane, but what if the NLNDP doesn't contest Windsor Lake. Seeing Cleary get crushed by a Liberal in a two way race, probably by a 10-1 vote, would be amusing. Tongue out


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

"If my Mom hates his guts, good luck with my Dad," says my Wife. Her parents live a few hundred metres outside of Windsor Lake district. I hope Cleary doesn't accidentally wander upon their land.


Ken Burch
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Joined: Feb 26 2005

Isn't Cleary the guy some posters here were saying HAD to become the NLNDP leader after the right wing of the NLNDP caucus rebelled against the LAST NLNDP leader?  


Newfoundlander_...
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Joined: Aug 22 2011

Basement Dweller wrote:

I know some people will think I'm totally insane, but what if the NLNDP doesn't contest Windsor Lake. Seeing Cleary get crushed by a Liberal in a two way race, probably by a 10-1 vote, would be amusing. Tongue out

That's if those NDP voters went to the Liberals. There seems to be a lot of New Democrats in this province who prefer the PCs to the Liberals. While some previous NDP supporters - and candidates - went to the Liberals over the last few years I know of several New Democrats who have started supporting the PCs over the last year or so. A big reason why Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary got elected was due to a lot of PCs supporting them over the Conservatives.


Newfoundlander_...
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Joined: Aug 22 2011

This columns also discusses how Ryan Cleary was a bit of a controversial figure within the NDP. While he had his supporters there were also a lot of people within the party who didn't like him or his style. It seems to me that Cleary isn't really an ideologue. He's a Newfoundland (and Labrador) nationalist. Traditionally the PCs have attracted those nationalists. Danny Williams was very much a nationalist, as was Brian Peckford. I don't know how much him going to the PCs has helped that party but it seems to have hurt the NDP. Espeically considering Earle McCurdy admitted he had tried to get Cleary to run.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/david-cochrane-ryan-...


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

This columns also discusses how Ryan Cleary was a bit of a controversial figure within the NDP. While he had his supporters there were also a lot of people within the party who didn't like him or his style. It seems to me that Cleary isn't really an ideologue. He's a Newfoundland (and Labrador) nationalist. Traditionally the PCs have attracted those nationalists. Danny Williams was very much a nationalist, as was Brian Peckford. I don't know how much him going to the PCs has helped that party but it seems to have hurt the NDP.

I guess the PCs told Cleary he'd be the next Danny Williams, and he believed them. He's not even a Brian Peckford.

The NLNDP was already struggling, but now they are hurt. Maybe that will motivate them. We'll see.


Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

From tweets I've seen, Ball didn't have a great night at the NL Women's Debate.

McCurdy did well.

Davis lost no ground.

 


RandySil
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Joined: Jun 22 2015

Slumberjack
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Joined: Aug 8 2005

Basement Dweller wrote:
I guess the PCs told Cleary he'd be the next Danny Williams, and he believed them. He's not even a Brian Peckford.

He more resembles a Brian Peckford cucumber.


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Could the Liberals pull off a Frank McKenna-style 40 seat sweep in NL?


jjuares
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Joined: Jan 21 2012
robbie_dee wrote:

Could the Liberals pull off a Frank McKenna-style 40 seat sweep in NL?

I was wondering the same thing.

Basement Dweller
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Joined: Nov 27 2006

robbie_dee wrote:

Could the Liberals pull off a Frank McKenna-style 40 seat sweep in NL?

For some reason, 308 is projecting five seats for the NLNDP (and one for the PCs).

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/atlantic.html


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

I suspect that 308's numbers might be skewed by very poor Liberal performances in a lot of ridings in 2011. Even then, only St. John's East-Quidi Vidi is predicted with a likelihood percentage above the low 60s (i.e. more than one standard deviation from the mean).


RandySil
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Joined: Jun 22 2015

If the absence of visible signs of organization/support are any indication (e.g., election signs, campaign HQs, etc) the St. John's NDP (they are not a province-wide party) is headed for a major disaster. Like back to the heady days of the 1980s when they had no elected representatives, including a seatless leader. Liberals appear to be pouring tons of resources into St. John's, especially targeting the only 2 remaining NDP incumbents. After the loss of Jack Harris as an MP, many of them seem to be resigned to losing. They have no money, half the candidates they need and almost all their younger organizers left over the past 2 years. Pretty desperate times


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