NDP battleground seats
Ok fine, battleground is a silly over used term. Point is, what do people think are close ridings that could go NDP if the ground game and organization is there. I'm thinking it might be best to keep it short and sweet. Name the riding and why it's in play,etc.
I'll start with a couple:
*Dartmouth- Cole Harbour (NS)
2 way race
Lib - Mike Savage (Incumbent) vs. NDP Robert Chisholm
Why? Savage has held the riding since Wendy Lill NDP retired, but Chisholm is well known as a former leader of the provincial ndp. Last election Brad Pye lost by 3800 votes. Chisholm knows how to bring the ground game.
*Parkdale-High Park (ON)
2 way race
Lib - Gerard Kennedy (Incumbent) vs NDP Peggy Nash
Why? Nash held the seat from 06-08 until Kennedy made the leap to federal politics. Kennedy is well known and if the NDP focus on personal politics they lose. If they focus on Libs being a useless and weak opposition to Harper and keep it party based and they pull it off with a good ground game. Nash lost by 3400 last time round.
*Winnipeg North
2 way race - mostly
Lib Kevin Lamoureux (barely incumbent) vs NDP Rebecca Blaikie
Why? Blaikie has the name, some good experience, more turn-out for a general is good.
*Edmonton East
2 way race
Con Peter Goldring (hella Incumbent) vs NDP Ray Martin
Why? Ray Martin upped the NDP vote by 13% last time around. Edmonton is obviously a target for the NDP and gets some sweet lovin from Layton to start off the campaign. Martin has some good provincial background in Alberta politics.
Good start. Here's my $0.02 about the NDP's chances in B.C.
Vulnerable NDP seats:
Burnaby-Douglas - Bill Siksay won this in a squeaker last time. With his retirement, the NDP loses the advantage of incumbency. The Tories will be gunning hard for this seat.
Vancouver-Kingsway - The NDP has won almost exactly the same number of votes the last three elections, but in the last election Don Davies managed to win due to vote-splitting between the Liberals and Tories, plus Liberal voters staying home. Wendy Yuan is running again for the Grits and while she is not exactly a superstar, unless Don Davies can increase the core NDP vote even a modest Liberal recovery or Tory slump will shift the seat back to the Grits.
Barring some sea change, all the other NDP incumbents should be reasonably safe.
NDP targets:
Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca - Keith Martin's retirement means this seat is wide open, but this was always more of a Keith Martin seat than a Liberal seat, so it's shaping up to be a two-horse race between the Tory (who came only 68 votes short last time) and NDP candidate Randall Garrison. The area is solidly NDP provincially but the Tories are helped by the presence of CFB Esquimalt.
Newton-North Delta - typically a close three-way race, Sukh Dhaliwal managed to increase his margin of victory in the last election while the NDP slipped into third. The provincial NDP cleaned up in the Newton part of the riding in the 2009 election and has consolidated its hold on North Delta. This time around the NDP has nominated a high-profile candidate, former BCTF President Jinny Sims, but unless she can shake loose some of the Indo-Canadian vote from Dhaliwal he will likely win a third term.
Surrey North - the NDP came close to winning last time despite being up against Chuck Cadman's widow and fielding a relatively weak candidate who was nominated at the last minute. Another area where the NDP dominates provincially.
Vancouver Island North - a perennial Tory-NDP swing seat. John Duncan and Catherine Bell have traded places in each election since 2004, with Duncan recapturing the seat in 2008 largely due to a total collapse in the Liberal vote. Although Bell is not running this time, this is one of the NDP's best pickup opportunities, especially if the Bruce Carson scandal (in which Duncan is directly implicated) turns out to have legs.
Other than that, I don't see a lot of realistic targets for the NDP in B.C. I suppose seats like Fleetwood-Port Kells, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Nanaimo-Alberni, Prince George-Peace River and Vancouver Centre could become competitive if the NDP surges in B.C., but I don't see it right now.
Seats the NDP could take:
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Nanaimo-Alberni
Vancouver Island North
Surrey North
Edmonton East
Edmonton Centre
Desenethe-Misinippi-Churchill River
Saskatoon-Humboldt
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Palliser
Regina-Qu-Appelle
Regnia-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Winnipeg North
Kenora
Oshawa
Huron-Bruce
Davenport
York South-Weston
Beeches-East York
Westmount
Central Nova
Cumberland-Colchester-Musquidiboit Valley
South Shore-St Margarets
St. Johns South-Mount Pearl
That's a decent list, but I think some of them are real longshots as things stand, i.e. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Edmonton Centre, Desnethe-Misinippi-Churchill River, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'Appelle, Kenora, Oshawa, Huron-Bruce, York South-Weston, Beaches-East York, Westmount, Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodobit Valley.
A few seats I would add to your list: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Newton-North Delta, Parkdale-High Park, Gatineau, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour.
In terms of realistic pickup prospects, as things now stand I'd put the list at:
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Surrey North, Vancouver Island North, Edmonton East, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Palliser, Winnipeg North, Parkdale-High-Park, South Shore-St. Margaret's, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and St. John's South-Mount Pearl (assuming Ryan Cleary is running again).
If we're going for longshots, I could list Brandon-Souris, Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Selkirk-Interlake, Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminister, Cypress Hills, Kelowna-Lake Country, and Portage-Lisgar.
Well, maybe 'longshot' was an inapt choice of words, but the seats I described as 'longshots' are possible but not particularly likely. I wouldn't even put the seats you listed above in the 'possible' category. (OK, OK, theoretically I guess anything's possible, but I'm talking about realistically possible.) ;)
Again, as things currently stand, I think something like 45 seats is probably the realistic best case scenario for the NDP this election.
ghoris, of those 45 seats, how many extra ones do you think would come at the expense of Conservatives? Would they be enough to offset Conservative gains at Liberal expense?
I think that NDP gains are likely to be roughly equally at the expense of the Tories and Liberals, so it could offset Tory gains from the Liberals, at least in part.
I'm going to say that S-H isn't a battleground seat, but the entry of Pankiw into the race has brought the seat into the realm of possibility. It depends on how many people he entices into his madhouse of mirrors. A few, then Trost won't have too many problems. But if he gets into the low thousands of votes, and the NDP runs a great campaign, then Trost could be looking at his pink slip. That's the kind of guarded optimism you'll get from even someone who will be volunteering on Denise's campaign.
I can only speak to one riding with any true knowledge and that is Huron-Bruce. Grant Robertson is about as well positioned as possible to take advantage of a national upswing in NDP support. I wouldn't say it is "likely" (although a strong 2nd place finish I would say is very likely), but it is a distinct possiblity. If the NDP swings even a little bit this is a riding that will very quickly come into play.
In the last two weeks Robertson was on every radio station at least once, more often twice, and in every newspaper I've seen. (The riding has a lot of little weeklies so I don't get them all). It was pure coincidental timing because it was the Bruce-Grey United Way that set the timing months ago, but his family was part of the put food in the budget challenge - so people got to hear and see the entire family. Very smart articulate kids who have obviously been brought up with good and strong values. That kind of stuff goes a long way with people around here.
The Liberal candidate - totally invisible. Same goes for the Conservative candidate. In fact budget issues were handled by the MP for Bruce Grey Owen Sound, not our own MP.
So no I wouldn't say this is a sure bet, but it is on the cusp and a bit of move nationally will translate well here and give the NDP here the boost it needs to take out a Conservative.
It will all depend on how well the national campaign goes- and then trying to take advantage of it here with a good old fashioned get out the vote drive.
I would also suggest for those who want to see New Democrats do well in some of these 2nd tier seats- go find their websites and make a donation if you can. Help them get to the spending limit so their voices don't get drowned out in the crucial post leadership debate and last week period.
I think you guys are missing some of juiciest targets in Quebec. Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer have to be at the very top of the list of NDP targets and if some of the polls are right and NDP support in Quebec actually does go from 12% last time to as much as 20% - there could be one or two other surprises as well - though its hard to pinpoint where the next tier of targets in Quebec would be. We saw that when the Tories surged in Quebec in 2006 they came out of no where to win some seats that no one thought they had any chance in...we shall see.
In Atlantic Canada, the obvious targets are St. John's South-Mount Pearl, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and South Shore-St. Margarets
In Ontario, it sounds like the main targets are Parkdale-High Park, followed by Davenport, followed by Beaches East York. If the Liberals really meltdown, York South-Weston could also come into play.
In the rest of Ontario the problem is that just about every seat the NDP could target has a Tory incumbent and at this stage it doesn't look like Tory support in Ontario is in decline - that being said, if the Tories do start to erode, then in addition to some of the ridings cited above I see some very strong NDP campaigns in places like Brant and Essex.
On the Prairies, the targets are obvious: Winnipeg North, Palliser, Saskatoon RB and DMCR in northern Sask. Its hard to say what might happen in the latter - these ridings with very large First Nations populations can be very hard to read.
In Alberta its clear that Edmonton East and Edmonton Centre are targets.
In BC, the really low hanging fruit has to be Surrey North, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (ignore the results from 2008 - in the absence of a Liberal incumbent it is a very left leaning area that has heavily NDP leanings) and North Vancouver Island. I actually think the NDP probably has a BETTER chance of winning Burnaby-Douglas without Siksay than with him and I'm not concerned at all about Kingsway - the NDP won there by almost 4,000 votes and the Liberals are running the same very weak candidate they ran last time and on top of that the Conservatives are targetting the Chinese vote in Vancouver even more than last time - so the chances of the "non-NDP" vote coalescing behind the grade Z Liberal are very slim.
The other really possibilities in BC would include Newton-North Delta - which the NDP came very close to winning in '04 and '06 and where the candidate is very strong, I wouldn't be so quick to write off Kamloops - the NDP actually came reasonably close there and if in fact the province wide vote CPC-NDP spread in BC goes from 44-26 to something like 39-30 (as some polls indicate) that swing would deliver this riding. Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows is another seat that the NDP came very close to winning in '04 and '06 - so it could also be a reasonable long shot.
Someone seriously does not like Alan Tonks.
Alberta Liberals will only have one campaign office.
This gives the NDP an even better chance to make gains this election.
Waving the white flag already? Wow.
Nice to see you quoted in the paper.
Wow. That're pretty sad.
Any honest battleground riding list needs a list of the vulnerable incumbent seats...
Several people have mentioned seats that they think could be vulnerable...the NDP plans to take the fight in this election to enemy territory and has an offensive not a defensive strategy. This is why the campaign is starting in Edmonton - a place where the NDP is hoping to gain two more seats, but where it also has its most vulnerable incumbent.
I wouldn't rule out Halifax West as a possible seat for the NDP to pick up.
The candidate, Gregor Ash, has a very high profile in the Arts community here in Nova Scotia, he was nominated more than a year ago, so he's been busy door-knocking for months, and the NDP has been a strong second-place contenter since Gordon Earle lost the seat in 2000.
Should the Liberal numbers drop, this is another possible NDP pick-up!
Well then, to the list of potential "pick-ups", depending on who the Liberals put up as a candidate, I think the NDP could be in contention in Saint John.
I'm surprised they are not putting in a token effort in Calgary North Centre. That is Joe Clark and Jim Prentice's old seat. It has no-incumbent and is really "PC" territory as opposed to CPC land.
It's an urban seat, so it the NDP should focus resources there.
I think the Greens could finish second in Calgary-NC this election.
The main two NDP battleground seats in BC are Burnaby Douglas and Vancouver Island North.
Burnaby Douglas: Perennial Liberal candidate Bill Cunningham is not running again. New Liberal candidate Ken Low ran in Vancouver East and got stomped-on by Libby Davies. If the Liberals lose votes where will they go? Demographics here have been pulling away from the NDP. Kennedy Stewart has some profile but is surprisingly uninsightful for someone with his education. Conservative candidate Ronald Leung has run strong a couple times, so also has name recognition (especially in the Chinese community). This one is a total toss-up.
Vancouver Island North: Even a whiff of scandal should deliver this seat to the NDP. My only reservation is I know little of the NDP candidate. Judge for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKtLwU0Snf0
Vancouver Kingsway - Don Davies is reasonably safe due to incumbency and a strong performance as the MP. Both Liberals and Conservatives will be more concerned with their tight battle in Vancouver South.
Juan de Fuca and Surrey North are only within the realm of possibility. That's it for BC.
Keep in mind that the Liberal vote in Burnaby-Douglas already collapsed to such a low level in 2008 that its hard to see it going any lower....so i think that if Kennedy Stewart retains the Siksay vote he will win. He probably will do better than that - as much as bill Siksay was a beloved figure here on babble - I'm not sure that being the only MP in Parliament to oppose raising the age of consent to 16 and being mainly known as an advocate of transgendered rights was much of a vote winner in Burnaby. A lot of people probably voted for him because they liked the NDP and weren't crazy about his stands on some issues. Stewart may actually prove to be a stronger candidate.
I have to disagree about Surrey North and EJDF being long shots - those are both ridings that vote HEAVILY NDP provincially. In fact, the two seats that make up Surrey North are the two safest BC NDP seats in the whole province. With NDP support going up and Tory support going down in BC - they are both very very low hanging fruit.
EDJF: Garrison came in a poor third last time. NDP probably should've found a fresh face
Surrey North: The problem is Jinny Sims in Newton North Delta might pull away too many resources. I've seen candidates like her before - big in the NDP but political losers - who have the influence to do damage through misallocation. Everything south of the Fraser should be piled into Surrey North. The NDP candidate Jasbir Sandhu is relatively unknown, but it would be awesome to have a South Asian NDP MP and Mrs. Cadman is low-profile.
The NDP almost won Surrey North in 2008 even though it had to find a candidate at late notice after Penny Priddy quit, so it should definitely target the riding.
And perhaps voters need to be reminded of the way Harper and the Cons treated Chuck Cadman. Dona Cadman has not acted in the Independent spirit of her husband. She has just been a rubber stamp for the Harper agenda.
I agree, Stock, that Esquimalt and Surrey North are top-tier targets, but I must take issue with the statement that NDP support in BC is going up and Tory support is going down. As you can see over at threehundredeight.com, the BC polling averages are currently CPC 40.2, Lib 24.1 and NDP 22.8, versus 2008 results of CPC 44.4, Lib 19.3 and NDP 25.0. The most recent EKOS and Ipsos polls both have the NDP at 20 (behind the Liberals). So yes, at the moment the Tories are down from 2008, but so is the NDP.
I also disagree, respectfully, with Basement Dweller's assessment that Don Davies is "reasonably safe", especially based on the current BC polling numbers. I think Kingsway will be a dogfight - the Libs only need a very modest improvement to re-take the seat. Both threehundredeight and DemocraticSPACE are showing Kingsway as a toss-up (threehundredeight actually gives the edge to the Grits).
Actually Garrison did not run at all in 2008 when the NDP came in third. He was a close second to DOCTOR PROFESSOR Keith Martin the two times he ran in 2004 and especially 2006. With a popular candidate like him running and with the Liberal vote set to collapse with no Keith Martin - this seat is highly winnable.
Oh OK my mistake. I still see EDJF unlikely though, but possible.
Vancouver Kingsway: Liberals would need momentum as their vote is soft. They don't have it and I have a hard time seeing where it would come from here in BC.
If the NDP don't win in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, it will be very unfortunate. It would have been better if Keith Martin had stayed then. What's the point of it going to the Conservatives?
I can't be bothered to look at 308 because it is useless. But democraticspace calling Huron-Bruce safe is laughable. I am not saying it is a sure bet loss, but it is for sure not a sure bet win for the Cons. We have a Con MP who no one particularly likes, or dislikes for that matter too, he's just too invisible to warrant any impression, who is now running on a very lack lustre record on constituency work. Not a safe seat - not by a long shot.