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Is it time for a new NDP Leader in Manitoba?
October 25, 2014 - 11:10am
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Any truth to this?
Premier Selinger facing potential revolt within NDP
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Premier-Selinger-facing-potential...
Under discussion here
It's time for an NDP in Manitoba.
Hang in there Greg. Don't give in to blackmail, eh!
He should have raised provincial income tax, not consumption tax.
Keeping income and business tax low to appease the .001% into "doing their part" is waste of time. They won't EVER do their part unless they're given total "masters of the universe" treatment.
The bad polls are Seliger's fault for governing as a PC premier-for sucking up to the rich on revenue issues and for selling out workers by refusing to pass anti-scab legislation...legislation only right-wing extremists oppose.
Theresa Oswald enters Manitoba NDP leadership
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/theresa-oswald-launch-manitoba-ndp-120000315.html
The Manitoba NDP is a sinking ship anyways. I suspect that Oswald won't really be able to distinguish herself from Selinger other than "I don't like the PST even though I loyally voted with Selinger on that until the poll numbers got really really bad." There is still anger at her for the way she joined 4 of her colleagues to try and oust Selinger, and should she pull off the impossible and win, that anger will not go away, certainly not in time for 2016.
The leadership review process in the Manitoba NDP is badly broken, and I will reiterate my point upthread that neither Oswald, nor the rest of the Gang of 5, nor Selinger come off looking good in any of this.
People said that NO new Ontario Liberal leader could repair the damage done by McGuinty. They picked Wynne and she won a majority
People said that NO new BC Liberal leader could repair the damage done by Gordon Campbell. They picked Clark and she won a majority
People said that NO new Alberta PCl leader ever could repair the damage done by Alison Redford. They picked Prentice and nothing more need be said...
On the other hand, I'm sure that some people said that no leader could repair the damage done by Trudeau or Mulroney, and nothing more needs to be said about those long-serving Prime Ministers John Turner and Kim Campbell.
Really, the only thing the Manitoba NDP has going for it right now -- whether they keep Selinger or replace him with Oswald or someone else -- is a very lacklustre opposition. Which isn't a whole lot to go on, considering that the other guy screwing up is never a sure thing, and it's going to be hard for even the incompetence of the Tories to overcome the unpopularity of the NDP.
It's a pretty depressing situation for anyone who values the positives that have come with having an NDP government (ie. not having to put up with the privatization crap going on in Ontario, Sask or BC or backing down on introducing LGBT clubs in schools despite some bible belt backlash).
Teresa Oswald was part of the government that raised the sales tax and she had no objection to it at the time. I don't see how she can turn things around. IMO, Only an outsider like Bill Blaikee has a shot.
That said, the NDP had climbed back up to around 30% in the polls before the cabinet revolt and they seemed poised to at least challege to hold onto power in the next election. The cabinet revolt, if not the tiiming of the cabinet revolt, was a bit odd to say the least.
Oswald on the PST hike: http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/oswalds-stabbing-wor...
Today she has already mused about shortening the 10 year limit to the PST hike.
I think it holding a referendum on the issue would make more sense. Pallister and the Tories will campaign against it while the rest of Winnipeg (including its mayor) will campaign for it.
Selinger is polling at 17%. There is no way he can stay as leader. He should have left months ago. Replacing him was and is the only option.
Oswald will contrast nicely with blast-from-the-past Palliser who has chased three women from his caucus.
Frankly, this MB NDP leadership race has entered unchartered territory. Have never before heard of a sitting premier (with low personal approval ratings and a gov't mired badly behind in public opinion) hanging on as premier and also entering another leadership race of his party. The outcome will not be good and internal acrimony will result at the leadership convention. Not good.
Selinger should have "worn" the PST matter and stepped down honourably. The writing is on the wall.
Even if Selinger had stepped down, all other members of cabinet still "wear" the PST matter. A new MB NDP leader from cabinet or caucus ranks will also likely not mean one iota to the electorate FWIW.
Only a well-respected, charismatic, and personable politico, not now in the MB NDP gov't, has a chance to go on and win the next election for the MB NDP. Who would that be? I don't know enough about MB politics in order to hazard a guess.
The MB NDP is failing in every respect, from poli history, to have a successful leadership race and go on to win the next election. Kinda sad as I have always been fond of both the SK and MB NDP wings.
2 BC similarities:
1. 1986, and Socred premier Bill Bennett was still "wearing" the negative restraint program after the 1986 election, which they did not disclose to the public. Huge public outrage still lingered. BC NDP leading in polls for over 2 years. Socreds were toast. Bennett realizes this and pulls plug. Outsider and former Socred cabinet minister Bill Vander Zalm jumps into the ring and wins the Socred crown. Within 6 weeks he calls election and Socreds poll as high as 57% and go on to win majority gov't.
2. 2010 - BC Lib leader Gordon Campbell sinks to as low as 9% in personal approval after the HST fiasco. He realizes the game is over and pulls the plug. Outsider and former cabinet minister Christy Clark jumps into the ring and wins the crown. Immediately thereafter the BC Libs lead the polls again. Clark should have called an immediate election as well, but the BC NDP was also holding a leadership race. In any event, Clark again went on to win the election 2 years later. A fluke somewhat.
In any event, the MB NDP needs:
1. Selinger to step down forthwith;
2. A popular outsider to enter the MB NDP leadership race;
3. Upon winning that leadership race, call an election within 4 - 6 weeks to capitalize on the honeymoon and likely topping of polls;
Right now, the MB NDP have bungled the whole matter from the get go. Sorry to say.
As I mentioned above, Bill Blaikie fits that description.
What's not to like about the Manitoba and Saskatchewan NDP presiding over among the highest rates of poverty among their citizens under their watch, damaging the reputation of the NDP among its working class and activist bases in the rest of the country?
After 16 years in power, the NDP would be a long shot to win a fifth term no matter what. To me its a question of does the Manitoba NDP stick with Selinger and go on to face a 1987 New Brunswick-style result where Selinger leads the party to ZERO seats - or does the party lose honourably and is a strong enough opposition to be in contention in a subsequent election?
There is no question in my mind that with Selinger the Manitoba NDP will be wiped off the map and may never recover as a force at all. Under Oswalkd they will survive as a party. I have to wonder if Selinger has totally lost his mind now and is completely delusional like some tinpot dictator who refuses to see the writing on the wall. He has GOT TO GO!!!
The Manitoba NDP had a very messy succession in 1986 when the Pawley government collapsed and their support fell to single digits. The NDP picked Gary Doer as leader after the writ dropped - while he lost the election and came in third, the feeling at the time was that Doer had done very well under the circumstances to salvage 12 seats and 24% of the vote and he as we know regained official opposition status in 1990 and then became premier in 1999.
It may just be that Selinger just wants to make sure that no one will take over from him as leader while the party is still in power, because if they did, there's the chance, slim as it may be, that that successor could show him up somehow.
I think Selinger wants to make it as hard as possible for whoever replaces him to get into government at all, just to remind NDP voters how indispensible he supposedly is.
It's a common mindset among discredited leaders who are clinging to power in many places.
The NDP was starting to do better in Manitoba (30% in the polls) until the revolt.
Actually no. The NDP is going down no matter what. I don't see that Oswald can make any credible distinction between herself and Selinger, the move was blatantly opportunistic, and even if she pulls it off, there will be another faction of the party very angry with her. CUPE President Paul Moist even said that questioning Selinger is akin to political treason, so I don't see that bad blood going away once this thing is over.
1.I believe you mean schmuck, not shuck. Have to keep up the Yiddish content on Rabble.
2.Selinger is so delusional he was Gary Doer's Finance Minister for 10 years and then won an election as Premier.
3.Like I said above, the NDP was slowly improving in the polls prior to the revolt. He's probably finished now, but given that Oswald had no problem sticking with Selinger until, not because she had problems with his leadership or his policies, but solely because she determined he couldn't win the next election.
Selinger may have been a reasonable person at one time, but evidently power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. When you are a premier and most of your senior cabinet ministers quit because they find you impossible to work with IT IS TIME TO GO!!! I'm not sure what Selinger thinks he is accomplishing with this slow motion demolition derby. Any reasonable person would have resigned months ago when the revolt started. I'm starting to think that Selinger has decided that if he has to go down, he wants to drag as many people down with him as he can and cause maximum damage.
Other SANE prermiers and party leaders are able to read writing on a wall. Harcourt quit in 1995 when it was clear that the BC NDP couldn't win with him. McGuinty, Campbell, Stelmach, Dunderdale and Redford all quit when it was clear that their parties could never win again with them still leading. Why doesn't Selinger wake up and smell the coffee? the party cannot win with him as leader PERIOD. He has got to go!
I don't care if Oswald was in his cabinet when they put through the GST increase. Christy Clark championed the HST and campaigned for it in the referendum and wrapped herself in the flag of Campbellism - people quickly forgot about how much they harted Campbell and she won the election. I don't think this is about the sales tax increase. i think this is about the premier being off his rocker and the people around him tiptoeing away and looking for an alternative.
The unpopularity of the provincial NDP is harming the prospects of the federal NDP.
The Liberals may end up winning more seats in Manitoba than the NDP in 2015.
I can't imagine Mulcair is happy with the Selinger situation.
Ashton to announce his intentions:
I'm actually surprised by this move. Having been in politics for over 30 years, I was thinking Ashton would want to start thinking of winding down his political career. He has also been through the scenario of the NDP losing popularity under Howard Pawley, and I didn't think he would want to take over the Party only to end his career as the Leader of the Opposition.
In the interests of full disclosure, I supported Ashton in 2009.
I don't think it's all that surprising -- he seemed to me to be playing a little coy in the media. But perhaps his entry into the race will inject a little more substance instead of the debate just being "Selinger can't win" versus "Traitors!!!" I recall last time, he was the only candidate who was proposing some policy changes -- things like bringing back the tuition freeze and implementing anti-scab legislation (whereas Selinger promised to "only" increase tuition by 5% per year and did so up until the government came up with the highly flawed Bill 2) -- which are things that progressives can really get behind and which the NDP has abandoned over the years.
It's hard to predict how exactly things will shake up. It seems like a lot of the big movers and shakers have probably already chosen sides, but he didn't need all that much support from them last time to score almost 40%. Maybe it's possible that he will pick up support from those who have lost faith in Selinger but don't like the Gang of Five, but I suspect that there is a ceiling there and that a lot of people have already been polarized one way or the other. Also, the actual process will matter a lot as well, as it did last time in how there were a lot of decisions made about the process that didn't go his way (the motives of which I'll leave to the reader's speculation).
The race definitely got a little more interesting today, that's for sure.
I think Ashton may have actually reached his high-water mark in 2009. He will have the added baggage this time around as being perceived to want to re-fight the 2009 campaign, unless there has been something very dramatic that has changed.
As for process, does anybody know if you'll have to attend a delegate selection meeting and get voted by your constituency association as was the case last time? I don't like the idea of having to publicly declare your allegiance to a candidate to get sent to convention, because the secret ballot is a cornerstone of the democratic process.
Of course, none of this would have happened if Manitoba NDP members had the option to vote yes/no for a leadership review, as is the case in almost every other party. Leaders may be as intransigent as they want, but they get a bad showing at a leadership vote, they're out the door one way or another and they have nothing to say about it.