the Globe's take :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pqs-popularity-jumps-within...

Léger says that, after an allocation of undecided voters, the PQ now has the backing of 43 per cent of the key francophone electorate, just enough to win a slim majority.

Over all, the PQ has 36 per cent support, up from 32 per cent in December.

The PQ lead is particularly marked in the seat-rich, mostly French-speaking areas outside Montreal and Quebec City, where 44 per cent of respondents would vote for the separatist party, against 27 per cent for the Liberals.

The PQ’s improving fortunes coincide with rising support for its controversial Charter of Values, which is more popular among francophones in rural regions despite concerns about its impact on minority rights.

Wasn't sure whether to put this here or in the charter thread, but the PLQ finally lost/expelled Fatima Houda-Pépin today, depending on which account you believe. Couillard had a press conference at which he (seriously) compared himself to Martin Luther King.

an unexpected twist, with Marois getting named as a corrupt union contact:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/tried+prevent+Charbonneau+inquiry/9412393/story.html

In a police wiretap recording from April of that year, Arsenault references a "deal with (Claude) Blanchet" — the husband of Quebec Premier Pauline Marois. The bottom line, Arsenault explains on the tape, is that the PQ "won't touch" the debate surrounding a possible inquiry. The then-Liberal government was reportedly considering a public probe in the wake of revelations about possible ties to organized crime within the FTQ, but there was little pressure from the opposition PQ to follow through. That apparently suited Arsenault just fine.

"We'll talk to Pauline," he adds on the recording.

Lavallée also makes mention of "our friends within the PQ" during the conversation.

Not to come to the resue of the PQ, because I couldn't care less about their political fate, but this makes no sense.

So, the argument appears to be that the Liberals really really wanted to do a public inquiry, but, you know, the PQ just wasn't forceful enough to pressure them into doing what they wanted to do but did not do?

And when the PQ did start to ask for a public inquiry, day after day, and the Liberals were replying that it wasn't necessary, day after day (but they really wanted to do it, in their deepest being...), that was the PQ's fault too?

uh, way too complicated:

Marois probably too close to corrupt union types. Period.

the best QC poll analysis is usually in the 308 site,

and they see a very tight race, with the PQ at the moment very slightly in the lead 35-34:

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/quebec.html

The regional divide here is clear: 60% of the PQ's seats come outside of the two metropolitan regions (though the party does win most of the ridings around the island of Montreal). The Liberals win just over 60% of their seats in the Montreal region, while the CAQ is reduced to their base around Quebec City.

Leadership seems to be an important driver in this swap between the PQ and Liberals. Marois picked up six points since December to be the choice for premier of 27% of respondents, while Philippe Couillard fell four points to 20% (he has dropped 10 points since June, and was the choice of only 63% of Liberal voters). This makes Marois a bit of a drag on her party (which had 32% support among all respondents, including undecideds) but Couillard a much more significant one as the Liberals had 28% support among all respondents. François Legault (the choice of 13%) and Françoise David (8%) do not have this issue. They are polling at about the same levels as their parties.

Couillard's numbers compare poorly to Marois on Léger's "satisfaction" question (more or less an approval rating). Couillard was at 30% approval to 51% disapproval, a net -21. Marois, on the other hand, had 39% approval to 54% disapproval, for a net score of -15. That was better than Legault's net -18 (30% approval to 48% disapproval), while David had the best overall numbers (34% approval and disapproval).

Satisfaction with the government was up five points to 38%, while dissatisfaction dropped six points to 56%. Support for sovereignty stood at 37% among all respondents, or 42% to 43% among decided respondents. That is up three or four points since December.

The parties are effectively carving out their issues among the electorate. When asked what would be the decisive issue for them in an upcoming election, 23% of respondents said healthcare, 16% said jobs, 11% said the deficit and the debt, and 10% said the values charter. Healthcare was a top issue for supporters of all parties, but the second most important issue was jobs among Liberals, the debt/deficit among Caquistes, and the charter among PQ supporters. That lines up very closely to the major issues being pushed by each party (QS supporters identified education and the environment as their top issues after healthcare).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201401/21/01-4731089-sondage-le-pq-serait-reelu-pres-de-la-majorite.php

La Presse story notes QSolidaire votes migrating to PQ and CAQ to Liberals, so nothing stable yet ...

Sad to hear about QS...They deserve better....But I bet you that 90% of Quebeckers have no clue about their platform...QS is the only party that would work hard for the interests of ALL Quebeckers.

Yes, please, Pauline: Let's hear where you stand.

the report in The Gazette this morning said Couillard  was re-emphasizing campaign  issues such as the budget, economy, deficit etc etc. Polls show these bread and butter issues are 2-3 times as important to Quebecers as charter morass.

BUT,

as cco demonstrates above, the issue that glues people to the screen remains reasonable accommodation -- despite the cold, the fires and trainwrecks, the sinking Habs, the cold again, Bombardier,  the Champlain bridge, the Turcot, CHUM, the construction hearings , Celine Dion, you name it....

latest serious numbers at 308 remain neck and neck, 35-34 PQ,

which for me is narrowly Liberal in total seats, as they usually underpoll (308 site had them at 33 seats in 2012; they got over 50):

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/quebec.html

detailed ongoing polling gives Libs a slight edge, I think:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-p5Ytzo6W5qs/Ut_Sl_A26kI/AAAAAAAARYo/O5NtO8kTcS...

Hebert idea needs to be fleshed out  a bit, but yes, sovereignty is not a plus,

and anything can happen in this neck-and-neck polling environment :

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/02/07/sovereignty_issue_a_barrier_to_pq_quest_for_majority_hbert.html#

When all is said and done the notion that a PQ majority could pave the way to a resumption of the debate over Quebec’s future remains a major roadblock standing between Marois and the majority she covets.

On that score her promise of a white paper was more defensive than proactive. It amounts to an attempt to avoid placing a referendum squarely in the window of a majority mandate without demobilizing the sovereigntist base of the party.

But at the end of the day the PQ’s referendum agenda remains the elephant in the election room and the greater the odds of a Marois majority, the bigger that elephant stands to become — to the point of potentially offsetting some of the benefits to the PQ of its secularism charter.

I'm curious as to how the prospects are for Q.S. to make any gains should there be an election called.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a political party has to have four seats in the Quebec Legislature to be an 'official' party, with access to staff resources that a party with less than four does not receive.

For a party to be recognized as a "groupe parliamentaire", it needs at least: (a) 12 seats, OR (b) 20% of the vote. Source: Section 13 of the Rules of Procedure of the National Assembly (it's a pdf and it's in French).

Parizeau back at it, pissing in Pauline's garden:

just when PQ wants to focus on other things, J.P. writes a front-pager saying QC economy terrible and in decline long-term:

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2014/02/09/le-quebec-vit-il-au-dessus-d...

by contrast, short-term situation not quite so bad:

QC created over 40 percent of new jobs in Canada in January, which PQ will trumpet:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Bryan+Jobs+numbers+rebound+could...

Quebec enjoyed a particularly good month, gaining 12,700 new positions, or just about double Ontario’s 6,000, Alberta’s 6,600 and British Columbia’s 7,100. But it’s not clear if Quebec can outperform the other big provinces in the longer run.

Looking back over the past year, Quebec’s employment gains have actually been weak, causing the provincial unemployment rate to rise, even after a big improvement in January. Quebec sits at 7.5 per cent today, up from 7.1 per cent a year earlier. Ontario unemployment, also 7.5 per cent today, is down one tenth of a point over the year. Both the big Western provinces have edged up one tenth in this period, but started much lower and remain low: 6.4 per cent in B.C. and 4.6 per cent in Alberta.

the big poll of the moment>

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/quebec.html

my question,

is the PQ lead actually more secure than the NDP in BC in fall 2013?

Very interesting column by Lysiane in La Presse today, points out steady shift in 2013-14 to PQ, due not so much to draft charter as to "recentring" politically --  PQ turning away from  green and student allies in mid 2013 to focus on suburban and middle-class francophone economic issues in 2013-14:

*weirdly, text may appear as google translated at La Presse site:

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/chroniques/lysiane-gagnon/201402/21/01-474...

The reason for this advance, surprising when we remember the confusion of the same government  one year ago, is due mainly to the fact that after a long period where she seemed unsure of herself, Pauline Marois - almost the only one with experience in her government team of neophytes  - finally played her cards well.

Last year, under the influence of the left wing and in the wake of its absurd participation with the red square protesters, the government seemed obsessed with the desire to play on Québec Solidaire territory, which  threatened the PQ in two or three districts of Montreal.

Since then, the government has finally realized what was obvious,  that elections are won in the center, and that their real enemy was the Coalition Avenir Québec.

Rightwing scum. I was going to say "bitch", though I suppose that is sexist, little as I care about whether I'm being sexist to that carsucking @#$%?&.? That piece of polluting shit was whining about whether she could drive a car to le Théâtre du nouveau monde or La Baie, which are both right over métro stations.

Did she really write "center" in American? She really is ruling-class sewage, like Alain Dubuc.

Don't shoot the messenger, at first I thought you were talking about Marois

And the spelling is Google translate's

You can't call her a bitch because she's lower than a dog.(shit)

left-wing activists call for QSolidaire and Option nationale to fully collaborate;

won't happen, but worth noting, esp. in those 4-5 ridings where they each take votes from the PQ:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/401442/appel-a-un-rapprochement-entre-option-nationale-et-quebec-solidaire

 Une trentaine de personnalités, parmi lesquelles figurent la comédienne Geneviève Rochette, la réalisatrice Anaïs Barbeau-Lavalette et l’humoriste Kim Lizotte, ont signé une lettre appelant les deux formations rivales à se rapprocher. Le parti d’Amir Khadir et de Françoise David (qui a remporté 6,03 % des voix au scrutin de 2012) et l’ancienne formation de Jean-Martin Aussant (1,89 % en 2012) ont intérêt à travailler ensemble plutôt que de se marginaliser, fait valoir la lettre mise en ligne vendredi soir.

« Les membres de QS invitent leur parti à s’affirmer de manière déterminée en faveur de l’indépendance et ceux d’ON affirment que si tel devenait le cas, une fusion avec Québec solidaire serait réaliste et nécessaire », a indiqué au Devoir la comédienne Catherine Dorion, militante d’ON, qui est une des initiatrices de cette tentative de créer des liens.

« Même si les conditions d’un rapprochement significatif ne sont pas encore réunies, nous risquons de rencontrer tôt ou tard une exigence morale ou politique de travailler ensemble », écrivent les signataires.

also, some leftward movement from PQ:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/401653/une-candidate-fait-le-saut-chez-qs-en-denoncant-le-neo-conservatisme-du-pq

L’ex-candidat à la présidence de la FTQ Claude Généreux  sera aussi candidat pour QS.

La candidate de Québec solidaire Rosa Pires appelle les électeurs progressistes à se méfier du Parti québécois, où une « clique "...

Yes, but unfortunately that article is behind Le Devoir's subscription wall.

Ex-FTQ presidential candidate, union rep to run for Québec solidaire

CAQ, not dead yet:

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2014/03/04/la-caq-devoile-son-slogan--o...

À défaut d’annoncer de nouveaux candidats vedettes, le chef caquiste va donc miser sur sa notoriété. «Je mets ma crédibilité dans la balance et j’offre aux Québécois dix années de ma vie», a-t-il déclaré, posant en défenseur des contribuables. Le Québec, dit-il, a besoin d’un «remède de cheval» et d’un «virage» sans quoi il se dirige tout droit «dans le mur».

«Moi, j’ai déjà eu des périodes difficiles chez Air Transat où j’ai dû faire des plans de redressement; le Québec a besoin d’un plan de redressement et a besoin de se donner Legault. On a besoin de quelqu’un qui sait bien gérer, quelqu’un qui a déjà créé des emploi», a-t-il fait valoir.

Questionné sur la profondeur de son équipe, M. Legault a répondu que son parti compte déjà dans ses rangs plusieurs vedettes, évoquant les ex-adéquistes Gérard Deltell, Sylvie Roy, François Bonnardel et Éric Caire. Il a ensuite vanté les députés Christian Dubé, Stéphane Le Bouyonnec et Hélène Daneault puis les candidats Mario Laframboise, Claire Samson et Claire Isabelle.

I don't see anything positive on the horizon.

The 3 main parties are identical ideologically,right wing conservatives.

This is what our so called 'democracy' has turned to...The splitting of a turd into 3 pieces and voting for whichever smells less.

QS doesn't stand a chance as they will not be part of any debate and will remain an obscure organization that the public will continue to be ignorant of.

Federally is not much,if at all,different.

We're fucked.

They were?...Sorry,my bad.

But I don't think they are  recognized as an official party (not enough MNA's)

Their platform and message is non-existant in the MSM.

The only time they are mentioned is when the media tries to tar and feather them as they did during the Maple Spring.

So that leaves us with a right wing government regardless of who wins the election.

The media makes or breaks a government,unfortunately...and it is clear that there is no appetite for progressive change,especially with the media beating the sheep over the head over and over again to vote against their own interests.