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Montreal based concerns - Gustave

fortunate
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Joined: Oct 29 2009

HI, i am hoping that i can post this as a new thread for Gustave

Gustave wrote:

Hi Fortunate and thanks for inviting me to post on your forum. This should have been a new thread but I’m not allowed to create one I believe. I’ll let you do whatever you want with it.

I thought I’d share some impressions and questions about the “probable” consequences of this Bill if adopted as is, which may well happen I’m afraid. What the key actors will do and how markets will react. I’ll talk mostly about Montréal. The little I now about Toronto is pretty much the same. I know too little about Vancouver.

I’d certainly appreciate to hear yours toughs on your city or on other probable consequences.

 

1 SPVM

Police forces obviously set their priorities according to their analysis of criminality. That within the sex markets is tiny in Montréal. Arrests for pimping have been on a steady decline in the last ten years. They catch around 3 dozens a year. Street prostitution is also on the decline. There was an outburst of protest in Hochelaga-Maisoneuve some years ago. It did not come out of an increase of criminality, but of annoyance and the fear of criminality. Arrest data also show that pimps are half the time people working alone. They are the most difficult to identify. Gang members are the usual others suspects and the police is already after them. They have their strategies to deal with this type of criminality. The new law will not change them.

I have a very fatalist view of the problems related to pimping. Even if we succeeded to eliminate prostitutes, violent pimps would turn to other women. The problem is in their mind. They are predators. They feel a rush in beating and humiliating women.

Pimps are already the main targets of the SPVM. They seriously inquire into each case brought to their attention and each case they find through other investigations, on gang members for instance. What can they do more? Prohibitionists would render this country a great service if instead of moralizing the public space and private matters, they reported their folk devils at the police stations.  

The police already has what’s needed to arrests clients of street prostitutes. I see no reason for them to make more use of it. Why go after Margot’s clients more now then before? They have known her for 5 years, she’s not causing trouble, or so little, and she has two kids to feed at home. They know about her, they talk to her. And she uses all the required civilities with them. I think not even one of them would fall for playing the intermediary in a scheme that consists of slashing her revenue in order to convince her to stop. It just does not make sense. Al sort of people would like the police to play a role in all sorts of social engineering schemes. Their mission is to combat criminality, not to implement schemes. And we all know where this inevitably leads, a build up of legitimate antagonism towards them by street workers, the worse case scenario.

So paradoxically, although the government announces a new crime out an old trade, I predict the arrests for prostitution related crimes to keep declining.  Their next three year plan is in direct continuity with their previous focus and methods. They emphasise the linking of and with the actors (but shamefully do not mention Stella among those).

2 The City of Montréal

There was a big attempt at creating a moral panic about massage parlours in Montréal last fall.

  • The RCMP, the CBSA and the SPVM packaged a series of arrests on that theme (less than 10). They made a big show of a Montrealer accused of human trafficking (victims worked in massage parlours), they shortly after busted Chinese massage parlours (most back in business today), and busted a few other massage parlours, in a rescue attempt fashion that was a complete flop.
  • Blaney came to the rescue announcing a task force and some money on human trafficking with promises of arrests (still) to come.
  • La Presse published no less than fifteen articles targeting the massage parlours and given access to unpublished material.
  • Coderre was informed of the operations to come just a few days before taking office. He played the game exactly as expected. He launched a harsh attack on the massage parlours. I’m not sure if he really used the word, but some media said “eradicate”.
  • La CLES (for who ever takes them seriously) and the Conseil du statut de la femme did also specifically target the massage parlours in their communications.
  • Maria Mourani did not intervene much, but she played the whistle blower, late summer, capitalizing on alleged citizens complains about massage parlours in Villeray.

The attempt failed, as most attempts to create moral panics. I guess citizens are like me. “Where’s the beef? Can you please show significant numbers of arrest? We pay you to combat crime, not for whining about it.  Blaney did put all the drama he could, but he is certainly not strongly supported by the SPVM. They don’t believe there’s a new form of exploitation in the sex industry just because pimping activities have been rebranded sex trafficking.  Their estimates (unpublished method) is that 80% of the traffic occurs within the province. We used to call that pimping. As for international trafficking, nobody can safely say anything before we get a significant number of arrests under the new law. That has not happened in Montréal yet.

Annie Samson, vice-president of the Montreal Executive Committee, was asked by the mayor to make recommendations about the massage parlours. She got into this task with a knife between her teeth. She has already announced that her personal opinions have evolved on the subject. She met sex workers. She now says she’s concerned about the consequences for them. That’s a sign of intelligence as far as I’m concerned. One option for Montreal was a new category of permits for erotic parlours. I guess it may take some time before they get clear legal advice. I’m not sure if a massage parlour is illegal under the new law.  So the same conundrum remains: can you really emit a permit to an establishment if clients are committing a criminal offence if they buy a service from them? I just don’t see a solution to this problem. I hope she’ll find something.

Arguably, erotic massage has developed to become the largest sexual service market in Montreal. It’s a good thing and everybody knows it. They offer a secure environment with short delay response to aggression. The sex workers basically define themselves the services they provide. They are easy to control for the police. They give easy access to sex workers for the health services.

Coderre supposedly called for eradication. My guess is that many signals coming from the police and the consultations tend to show that the movement towards this sector is not a bad thing and that the fierce attacks coming from la CLES may be attributed to their fear of security improvement in sex work (something that contradicts their main argument in favour of prohibition).

3 Markets: the fear factor

With no predictable change from those two actors, it boils down to the equations of economics. This law basically tries to disrupt the markets.

It does so by introducing a new fear factor in the demand and by trying to disrupt the communications between the parties. The supply side could hardly be attacked considering the SCC judgement. They lift on in-call prohibition is even a gain for the providers.

There are many questions to answer:

1 How will communications between buyers and sellers be affected? Will they succeed in disrupting the Internet communications? Will the print media find a new way around the law? What will happen with the punters forums that are, IMHO, the most important information transmission device for the consumers?

2 How will the demand react? There will be some reduction of the demand, that’s for sure, but how much and for how long? How will the fear factor play? How will this reduction be distributed among all the different sex services markets? Who will quit buying and who will not?

3 What will be the effect on prices and revenues?

Is this going to be anything else then a short lasting electroshock?

 


Comments

fortunate
Offline
Joined: Oct 29 2009

 

I am not good with titles, sorry Gustave but i was hoping you would be able to post in a new thread, and that you would find it this way :)

 

i would like to note that the Vancouver Police dept, and other city PDs also did a similar raid/sweep/'investigation of massage parlours in 2006 (note that they haven't really bothered to do them since then?)    The results were pretty much the same as what you show in #2, City of Montreal and their focus on asian massage parlours, and looking for victims and not finding them.   

Some will say that they are staffed with illegals and underagers, but SWAN in Vancouver has worked establishing relationships with parlour owners and the workers, and say they have not found anyone trafficked.   i posted the info elsewhere. 

In the Vancouver area raids, they also visit the real illegal asian places, and they found that they maybe found one person under 18, and that all of the women were obviously willing, albeit working illegally.   They get deported, and at the time, bawdy house and living off the avails charges could be laid against the people who facilitate their willingly migrant sex work.   

 

1 How will communications between buyers and sellers be affected? Will they succeed in disrupting the Internet communications? Will the print media find a new way around the law? What will happen with the punters forums that are, IMHO, the most important information transmission device for the consumers?

2 How will the demand react? There will be some reduction of the demand, that’s for sure, but how much and for how long? How will the fear factor play? How will this reduction be distributed among all the different sex services markets? Who will quit buying and who will not?

3 What will be the effect on prices and revenues?

Is this going to be anything else then a short lasting electroshock?

 

i think, #1  Communications will go back the way it used to be like 30 years ago when they introduced the Criminal coder charges 210-213.    No one talks about anything other than a start rate, and everything else gets discussed face to face.  Maybe you can skirt around it by saying half hour and hour rates, and the code is that a half hour rate means something different than an hour rate.   So back to codes, and no clients know what the sex worker is or isn't willing to do, and lots of time wasted.    

Advertising and/or internet stuff, will turn into what it is like in the US.  In fact, the majority of Canada based online advertising will stop paying Canadian service providers, and move to something out of the country.   Any advertiser will simply post ads on back page or CL, both US based sites.    The forums?   They exist and prosper in the US, i don't see any reason why they won't continue in Canada.   People seem to think that they will be in some kind of internet danger, but heck, didn't the Cons just lose their fight to get unrestricted access to IP info?    

#2,  There will likely be a small percentage of the buyers who stop, for a while, until they can figure out how things are going to be enforced or not.   It most certainly never stopped the street work clients, of which there were many and many sex workers on the streets 30 years ago, as it was more common than indoor.  Internet moved folks indoors.   Internet will keep them indoors, they'll find that the ads continue, it means that they will most have to be careful not to contact an ad that looks too good to be true, as my guess is that enforcement for indoor clients will be in the form of a fake ad online.  they've done that when searching for guys looking for under 18 providers.    In Victoria they ran that sting, and found 2 i think total.   Again another overly inflated issue

Those who express a lot of concern on the forums, conclude that with the fact that they are going to simply repeat with the sex workers that they know are not LE.   in effect, encouraging the sex workers who are now working to continue, because they will be assured of a steady income of regulars.    in fact, defeating the purpose of C-36 whose intent is to slow or end demand, making it more lucrative to remain in business lol

 

#3   I have a hard time guessing prices and revenues.   In general, pricing in the US tends to be higher, with less flexibility, due to a lower demand.   Also clients are less likely to seek out and see several different people in one month, or a lot of new people, since in the US that is more difficult as the workers want references and information to screen (to screen out law enforcement aka LE).   So they aren't going thru that several times a month, and they are more likely to repeat with one person, or they are likely to spend more time.   Here we have popular times of half hour then the hour, there more people take an hour first visit.  If someone's budget per month is 500, here they might see 5 different people at 100.    In a different setting of references, reviews, screening, and minimum times and their unwillingness to be screened 5 different times, they then may choose to see 2 at 250 each.    so the sex worker gets more $$ per call, but sees fewer different clients.  her revenues per month may stay the same, but she doesn't see 30 people, only 20.     

 

Electroshock is my interpretation.  The fact is, that in the event of a legislative change, then things will change but they won't go away.  Sweden proof of that.     End demand??  Not likely.   They'd be better off trying to end supply.   The majority of clients aren't seeking services by demanding them, they are seeking them because they are being supplied, and advertised.   


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